The Boys of Summer

Ugh. Season over.

2009-09-24T09:52:00.000-07:00

All the really interesting stuff with the O's is finished, as all of the young guys (even Reimold) have been shut down. There are a handful of meaningless games left and then...sweet oblivion.

The only real storyline left is whether or not the O's win 63 games, AKA do they avoid 100 losses. Honestly, that's basically it. With all their rookies finished for the year, there are way too many AAA-lifers on the roster for me to really care about the remaining games. I know a lot of people would say that doesn't make me a "true fan" - but honestly, what do they expect? I don't owe the Orioles anything, and right now they aren't putting a team on the field that I want to watch.

I'll do a longer offseason post later, even though the Orioles will probably be very quiet in the market. The team needs a big slugger at either DH, 1B, or possibly 3B, and there is no free agent this year that fits the bill. Additionally, Andy MacPhail has said that he isn't going to trade a lot of prospects for a big name hitter, so all the fans out there who support the idea of trading Tillman+Reimold+Britton (or whatever insane package) for Adrian Gonzalez won't get their wish. Keep an eye on Justin Turner, as he may end up the Orioles everyday 3B next year.

The only races left are the AL Central race and the NL Wild Card. I'm rooting for the Tigers and Giants to pull it out, as both have superior pitching staffs (staves?) and will likely be better teams in the playoffs than the Twins or Rockies (who are about to have the quietest 90-win season ever).

I'll do a post on the MVP, Cy Young, and other awards once the season officially ends.

Another season, another tough summer.

Everyone likes pie!

2009-09-05T11:17:00.000-07:00

I'd been meaning to do a blog post on Felix Pie for a while, but I always put it off because the moment never seemed right. Now, though, I think is the proper time.

Adam Jones has severely sprained his ankle and will be out for two or three weeks - and is likely done for the season. This comes on the heels of the announcement that Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman will be shut down soon due to their innings limits as young pitchers. Prepare for a brutal September as this trio is replaced by Chris Waters, David Pauley...

...and Felix Pie.

Pie's season has been incredibly up and down. Though he wasn't the Opening Day left fielder, he essentially took over the role quickly, and through May he had twenty-five starts in the Orioles first thirty-six games. Unfortunately for him, he wasn't hitting at all - in his first thirty six games, he batted only .195 with two home runs and an incredible four RBI (how is that even possible?). Across June and July he accrued just seven starts and saw only limited action as a pinch hitter, pinch runner, and defensive replacement.

Unknown to most people, Orioles' hitting coach Terry Crowley was completely taking apart Pie's swing and putting it back together again. If you compare games from April and August, the difference in Pie's swing is huge - he's much more crouched now, his bat held higher. He uses a leg-kick as a timing mechanism that (if you'll excuse me) greatly resembles Sadaharu Oh.

The results have been obvious. Besides the night he memorably hit for the cycle against the Angels, he has batted .382 with 6 home runs and 13 RBI over his last 18 games. He's .329/.383/.612 since the All-Star Break.

So what does this all mean? With Jones out Pie will have ample chances to prove how himself over the next few weeks. There has been heavy criticism levied at Pie for his constant mental errors. He remains the only player Trembley has called out all year. Pie can prove to the skeptics that he can actually hit, field, and run like the superstar he was claimed to be all those years ago.

Adam Jones's stats had been plummeting across the board prior to his injury, and right now Pie actually has a higher OPS. That said, there is no chance Pie usurps center; not only is Jones younger, but his improvement has been so rapid. Jones could be an elite player next year, and the team isn't going to mess with the guy who, along with Wieters, will likely become the face of the franchise over the next several years. Pie's real future lies in left field.

It's no secret that Reimold has been banged up on-and-off during the season. Though his arm is good, Nolan doesn't run particularly well, and Trembley has spoken (repeatedly) about working with Reimold to help him have more confidence when coming in on balls. Considering his injuries and the fact that Pie is without a doubt a superior defender, and there's an excellent chance that Pie is the Opening Day left fielder next year with Reimold at DH. I think the most likely situation is the two platooning left, with Pie sitting against lefties and Reimold starting at DH against right-handed pitching.

I always felt that the Cubs gave up much too quickly on Pie. He had only a few hundred at bats across two seasons, and those were when he was 22 and 23 - you can't look at sporadic playing time over those ages and call the results conclusive. The team (and the Cubs' fanbase) turned on him incredibly rapidly, considering how much talent he had demonstrated as a teenager. Andy MacPhail got Pie for Garrett Olsen, who has nearly a 6 ERA and is back in the minors. There is a real chance that Olsen-for-Felix-Pie could be a swindle on par with the Erik Bedard trade.

Scott Kazmir to the Angels

2009-08-28T15:53:00.001-07:00

Scott Kazmir has been traded to the Angels for minor league players Alexander Torres and Matthew Sweeney. Both Torres and Sweeney are mid-level prospects, both 21, both playing great in high-A ball but both clearly a few seasons away from the big leagues.

I'm personally shocked at how quickly Kazmir went from #1 ace to being dealt for what is a decent but unspectacular package. Scott Kazmir, for those who have forgotten, had full-season ERAs of 3.24, 3.48, and 3.49 between 2006 and 2008, all while playing in the toughest division in the majors. He was only 25. Why the fall from grace?

The most puzzling aspect about Kazmir's tumble is that not one team claimed him off waivers. Not in the AL, not the NL. The Giants have been putting claims in on every warm body they could (Sheffield, Hoffman, Heilman, Harden...) and even they passed on Kazmir. This trade to the Angels took place after Kazmir cleared waivers. What gives?

It's probably not that complicated. For one, Kazmir had serious injury issues. He's been placed on the DL twice this season and missed significant amount of time last year. He's only thrown 200 innings in a season once, back in 2007. Pitchers with injury concerns rightly scare most teams, no matter how talented the arm is when healthy.

Secondly, Kazmir did not have a bite-sized contract. Kazmir and the Rays agreed to a three-year contract extension in 2008 that saw Kazmir guaranteed $28.5 million through the end of 2011, and with incentives could reach just under $40 million. He's owed $8 million in 2010 and $12 million in '11. For a lot of teams, the price tag alone is enough to ward off potential trades, never mind that the money is owed a pitcher with major injury concerns. There are plenty of non-contending teams (like our very own Orioles) that would have loved to traded for Kazmir...prior to his contract extension and all that guaranteed money.

But what about contending teams? Surely they're not scared of spending to win? Sure, but teams want to win now. Even with his injury concerns, Kazmir still has a bright future ahead of him. Plenty of teams would be glad to trade for him...in the offseason. But right now, during the pennant races, when the Rays would be able to demand more in the way of prospects? When Kazmir has a 5.92 ERA and his strikeout rate is the lowest of his career? Couple together his current performance, his contract, and his injuries, and it doesn't surprise me that a LHP with 45 wins by the age of 24 saw only one team interested in trading for him.

AL MVP

2009-08-27T11:25:00.000-07:00

While we're on the subject of predictions, I just want to throw my hat into Joe Mauer's corner in the race for American League Most Valuable Player.

The Orioles just finished a series with the Twins, and it was a treat getting to see Mauer play. I never realized just how huge he is, how big his shoulders are. Along with guys like Brian McCann and the newly arrived Matt Wieters, Mauer seems to be spearheading a trend away from squat, slow catchers and towards sheer athleticism and size. Mauer and Wieters are both around six-and-a-half feet tall, with huge shoulders and little to no fat on them. During the mid-90's, shortstops went through a revolution as teams started playing bigger, stronger players at the position; instead of guys like Ozzie Smith or Luis Aparicio, players such as Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, and especially Alex Rodriguez were playing short and showing that you didn't necessarily need a tiny guy who could do backflips to man the position. Similarly, I think catchers are going to start looking more and more like running backs as time goes by.

Mauer lived up to his hype as "the best" during the series. He was a great receiver behind the plate and moved extremely well on a few balls in the dirt. The Orioles ran on him a little bit and he made a series of effortless, on-the-mark throws. He also picked up three hits and saw his batting average sit at .373 when the series ended.

A .373 batting average would be the highest ever by a catcher since 1900. Even if his average dips, it is extremely likely that he'll win his third batting title, making him the first catcher ever to win three.

Over the last few years, as he put up historic season after historic season, I've asked myself several times "Is Albert Pujols the best first baseman ever?" And after researching it, I'd say no: It's unlikely that Pujols will eclipse Jimmie Foxx and Lou Gehrig. It's possible, but Pujols has established the level he plays at; he isn't suddenly going to reel off a season (or two) that is well above what we expect, even for a superstar like him, that will suddenly close the gap and see him overtake Gehrig as "The Best Ever".

Since 2006, when he and Jeter were locked in an amazingly close MVP race (ultimately won by Justin Morneau, who was maybe one of the fifteen best players in the AL that year), I've followed Mauer more closely than I do most players. After 2008, I remember thinking "He could be one of the best catchers ever!" But it was only now, during this series, contemplating his impending third batting title, that I finally said to myself: Joe Mauer might be the best catcher ever. It was an amazing thought. I don't really know why it never crossed my mind before now. Joe Mauer might be the best catcher ever! No hedging it, no "best player since", no explaining away "different eras": Total package, no apologies, the best ever to play catcher. That's a thrilling notion.

I watched the three games of the O's/Twins series with a friend who isn't nearly as into baseball as I am. I was talking about Mauer and mentioned that he was a local sports icon, having grown up in Minnesota and been a superstar quarterback in high school. My friend was delighted that he'd given up quarterback to play catcher. "He's like a knight that gave it up to be a general." If that's not a great sports metaphor, I don't know what is.

Thoughts on the NL Pennant Chase

2009-08-25T22:52:00.000-07:00

The Dodgers have the best record in the NL, but I don't expect them to win the pennant. Their problem, in my eyes, is the lack of a true ace: Their starting staff is very consistent, but they don't have any pitcher that can match up against the best in baseball. They just have a bunch of #3's. Clayton Kershaw leads the team with a 2.96 ERA, but that's driven in part by his unsustainable 6.4 hits allowed per 9 innings. He also walks more as many batters as any other pitcher in the majors, right now ranking second in the NL with 80 totals walks issued. That's not something that you can do against elite lineups and get away with.

That said, the Dodgers are still the most complete team in the NL. There's been a lot of talk about them 'collapsing' but they still should easily win the division. They play great defense up the middle, they have big hitters, they have a reliable starting staff and a deep, deep bullpen. They could easily lead the league in wins - I just don't expect them to win the pennant.

The Cardinals are scary good. Wainwright and Carpenter are every bit as dominating as Cain and Lincecum, but unlike the Giants, the Cards actually have a great lineup. St. Louis has a deep bench, with Rick Ankiel and Julio Lugo providing good-enough-to-start platoon players. With Smoltz added, their starting rotation is shored up, and when the playoffs roll around they should have a very deep bullpen. Pujols-Holliday is an incredible 3-4, and Yadier Molina is probably having a career year. Overall they're as good as any team in baseball.

The Phillies are as frightening as ever. Their lineup is the best in the NL: they lead in runs, home runs, and slugging percentage. They play amazing defense; their team defense is probably better than any of the other contenders. In Cliff Lee they have an elite ace. Their bullpen has a lot of guys that can pitch. My reservations about Philadelphia mostly center on a few players:

1.) What is up with Jimmy Rollins' bat? He is absorbing so many ABs and is just not hitting. What happens to him during the stretch run, or in the playoffs? Is there a chance he'll start batting eighth?
2.) Is Brad Lidge going to remain the team's closer? At what point do you pull the plug on him? He's not as terrible as his numbers, but he really hasn't been any good, either. Is he going to be given the ball in the ninth inning of playoff games?

When we remember this period in baseball history, this may be the point in which we talk about "that Phillies dynasty." They've followed the track perfectly: They developed talent from within, formed a great core of young players, shored them up with free agents, won divisions, won a pennant and World Series, and now they've sold off their young guys for proven Major League talent. They could very well be on their way to the second of three consecutive NL pennants.

In the Colorado-San Fransisco wildcard chase, I've picked the Giants, even though the Rockies are four-and-a-half games up as I write this. I just think that San Fransisco's aces will be able to carry them to the postseason. Additionally, Colorado has just been playing INSANE baseball. They're 50-25 since firing Clint Hurdle! Surely they can't keep playing .666 ball the remainder of the year. Surely they're due for a fall back to Earth.

If the Giants do reach the playoffs, the can beat anyone in baseball. Can you imagine facing San Fransisco in a short series and getting matched up against Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum, Cain? That's insane.

If I had to pick, I'd put the Dodgers, Cardinals, Giants, and Phillies in the playoffs, with the Cardinals compiling the most wins. That would match up St. Louis with San Fransisco (I'd pick the Cardinals to win a series in which each team score maybe 10 runs each across 5 games) and the Dodgers with the Phillies - and I'd take the Phillies. If I had to pick between the Phillies and the Cardinals, I'd have to take the Cards based on their starting pitching...but ask me again when the playoffs roll around.

Quick Hits, Sunday 8/23

2009-08-23T19:41:00.000-07:00

-Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold each had home runs as the Orioles won their first series since the All-Star Break. It's encouraging to see the young guys hit. Has there been a bigger surprise rookie in the AL than Nolan Reimold? He's come out of nowhere to become an everyday LF/DH. Felix Pie has made the most of his limited playing time, and should continue to earn starts and ABs. I hope the Orioles can avoid another August collapse.

-John Smoltz made his Cardinal debut, throwing five innings of shutout ball and striking out nine, including a St. Louis-record seven in a row. I don't want to say "I told you so", but...

-Eric Bruntlett's game-ending unassisted triple play was at least the third time this year I've said "What a perfect metaphor for the 2009 Mets." I'm not sure which is more fitting, the triple play or Vinny Castilla shanking a flyball to let the Yankees win in the bottom of the ninth.

-Derek Jeter is quietly having not only one of the best seasons of his career, but the best of any leadoff man in baseball right now. He's .331/.394/.471 on the season with 21 steals; both BP and Fangraphs see him as above-average defensively on the year.

Derek Jeter was so overrated for a while that he's almost underrated. Stat guys got so caught up in pointing out how overrated his defense is and how much the media fawns over him, but they seem to have lost sight of the fact that he's also a Hall of Fame shortstop for a reason.

-I'm no buff when it comes to the minor leagues, and so I was asking around about who the frontrunners for Minor League Player of the Year are; apparently Brian Matusz is the favorite. It would be amazing if the Orioles had two players win the award in back to back seasons. The track record for MiLPOY's is extremely good, with a high percentage of HOFers and perennial All-Stars.

-Speaking of Minor League Orioles, Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun speculates that Justin Turner, the everyday 2B for the AAA-affiliate Norfolk Tides, will be called up soon. I think Turner is one guy who's been hugely flying under the radar. He doesn't have much pop in his bat, but he's a 24-year-old second baseman batting .314 at AAA - that's nothing to sneeze at.

Over the last six games at Norfolk, Turner has gotten five starts at third base, suggesting he'll split time with Mora over the remainder of the year. I don't know if he's in the mix to be our Opening Day third baseman next year, but his callup is exciting. I see no reason he couldn't get about twenty starts across 3B, 2B, 1B or DH over the rest of the year, and maybe compete for a spot in Spring Training. I see him as a Blake DeWitt type, a guy who plays good D and OPS's around .750

Quick Hits

2009-08-19T12:46:00.000-07:00

-John Smoltz signed on with the Cardinals to be their fifth starter. I like the move, as 1.) While St. Louis has an amazing 1-2 combo in Wainwright and Carpenter, their starting depth after that is very weak. 2.) When the playoffs roll around, he'll be moved to the bullpen and could be quite effective from there. I still feel like the Cardinals bullpen is a total house of cards, because Franklin is clearly playing way over his head. 3.) Smoltz isn't as bad as his ERA indicates. He still strikes out a lot of people and doesn't walk anyone. His peripherals are/were good, he just got a little unlucky before he had his legitimately awful start against the Yankees. I believe he still has gas in the tank. 4.) Smoltz is desperate for a job. It's a win-win, and a great fit.

-Stephen Strasburg signed with the Nationals for $15.6 million. A lot of people are balking at the number, but I think it’s great. At the end of the day, you have Strasburg and everyone else doesn’t. Some have said they shouldn’t have gone higher than $12 million, but are you really going to let a 21-year-old with his track record, with his polish and incredible stuff slip through your fingers over a few million? Hank Greenberg, when he was GM of the Indians back in the 60’s, had Luis Aparicio ready to sign—and then tried to chisel a few thousand dollars out of the shortstop and saw Aparicio go to the White Sox. Hey, how’d that one work out, Greeny? If you’re serious about winning you sign your #1 picks. I’m glad Washington got it done (even though, had Strasburg reentered the draft, Baltimore would have had a real shot at him), because it’s bad for baseball when you have lame duck franchises, teams with no fanbase, no money, and which seem to have no commitment to winning. I hope Strasburg helps turn the Nats around.

8/14 - Wow, we needed that

2009-08-15T07:06:00.000-07:00

I don't have much to say other than that was the best Orioles win of the year. Yes, even over our comeback against the Red Sox.

Dave Trembley had gone on record earlier in the season as saying "Someone is going to pay." Someone was going to pay, because this team was much more talented offensively than the numbers were showing. This team was due to hang ten on someone, and last night they did.

Felix Pie hit for the cycle. The much maligned outfielder made the most of his limited playing time, having the most spectacular evening in a night filled with lots of hits and lots of runs. The Orioles scored 16 against Jered Weaver and the Angels, chasing the Angel starter before the fourth inning. The fact that Baltimore was able to reach (and hit) the Angel bullpen (as three different LAA relievers threw over an inning of ball each) so early in the series means that the Angels' relief corps will be depleted as the series continues, a small but relevant edge over the remaining three games.

Perhaps most significantly, Chris Tillman earned his first major league win, going 6.2 innings with 3 ER (4 runs total), 7 hits, two walks, and three strikeouts. Wieters may have recieved the most hype after being promoted, but if the Orioles are actually going to turn themselves around, Tillman's success is just as important as the Switch-Hitting Jesus.

Nolan Reimold has been banged up lately, and with his late performance Felix Pie has earned the right to keep starting in left. In a perfect world, Pie would develop into an everyday left fielder who plays good D and runs well, while Reimold would take over the DH spot and get some starts in left. I have no idea how likely that is (the odds are probably against it) but Pie will continue to get starts in LF. Hopefully, more regular time will do him good.

Maybe we'll get blown out tonight, and Matusz will get hit hard. Maybe Felix Pie really is the chump Chicago fans insist he is. I don't know; that's all in the future. What I do know is that last night was the best time to be an O's fan all year.

Loving the Orioles lineup for 8/14

2009-08-14T13:37:00.000-07:00

Per Roch Kubatko:

Brian Roberts - 2B
Adam Jones - CF
Nick Markakis - RF
Aubrey Huff - 1B
Nolan Reimold - DH
Matt Wieters - C
Melvin Mora - 3B
Felix Pie - LF
Cesar Izturis - SS

Tillman is on the mound tonight, facing Jered Weaver and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Some quick points:

-Okay, yes, it sucks that Huff is still batting fourth.

-I'm glad Wieters has been moved up in the lineup. He's earned it, and Mora and the others haven't. With any luck he'll see better pitches to hit.

-This is the second straight start for Pie. I think he needs to get a lot of starts over the remainder of the season. For one, Reimold is a bad defensive left fielder, and while Pie has poor instincts in the field, he is fast and has a pretty good glove and arm. Secondly, while Pie has never hit well at any point in his major league career, I think a lot of that can be contributed to how sparsely and sporadically his playing time has been: Yes, he's not the second coming of Carlos Beltran like he was projected to be all those years ago, but you can't give a guy 100 at-bats one season, 75 another, and then say his performance over those ABs is conclusive. Jered Weaver, tonight's starter for the Angels, is a flyball pitcher as well.

-Reimold has been a successful #2 hitter because he walks so much, but I like him batting fifth as well. What is this team's biggest strength this season? Doubles. You want to have athletic, speedy guys on the bases when your team is hitting a lot of doubles, so that they can score from first. Reimold walks a lot and takes pitches, but he isn't a speedy guy. He's more like Albert Pujols on the base paths: Doesn't run himself into outs, can often go first-to-third, but he isn't a burner.

Should be a good game.

The Six-Man Rotation

2009-08-14T05:23:00.000-07:00

The Orioles will be moving to a six-man rotation, it's being reported.

This is a move designed to protect all the young rookies. Sabermetric analysis over the years suggests that when a young pitcher throws more than 40 innings more than he did the previous season, injuries become much more likely. Prior to this announcement, it was assumed that Brian Matusz would be shut down when Brad Bergesen returned, as Matusz was nearing his innings limit. By moving to a six-man rotation, the rookies (and Matusz especially) won't have to be shut down, but will be allowed to pitch throughout the remainder of the season without risking their arms.

I'm definitely a fan of the move, for two reasons. One, I love wacky, think-outside-the-box moves. When the Rockies went to a four-man rotation a few years ago, I was excited about that too. It has nothing to do with smart (or dumb) baseball decisions: The fan in me just enjoys when unusual stuff happens. Secondly, and more importantly though, this signals that Matusz is here to stay. If Matusz were up merely as a placeholder until Bergesen returned, the team wouldn't go to a six-man rotation; the Orioles would just option or bench the lefty once BB returned. By making sure that he gets his work in and keeping him at the big league level, the O's are letting us know that they fully intend for Brian Matusz to be part of their starting rotation on Opening Day 2010. Now that is something to get excited about.

There was talk of possibly optioning Jason Berken, or moving him to the bullpen, but apparently he will continue to start. I'm fine with that; the team can either start a AAAA pitcher, or let Berken take his lumps and hope he gets better in the long run. They have nothing to lose by putting him out there.

Other notes: Koji Uehara is returning soon and is almost certain to be moved to the bullpen. It's too bad that he got such little time as a starter here in the US, but there were just too many young rookies who developed too quickly for him to remain in the rotation. Even when he was out, there was still a dogfight for starts amongst Bergesen, Matusz, Tillman, Guthrie, Berken, Hernandez, and Rich Hill, and that doesn't even count a guy like Jake Arrieta, a highly regarded prospect in AAA who may see time next year. Moving Koji to the pen gives us a very good long reliever (something that is particularly useful considering how quickly our guys can get knocked out, and how much our young guys often labor through innings). Brian Bass has actually pitched pretty well, but I'd much rather have Koji in that role than him. Our bullpen is also starting to take shape, and on Opening Day next year we should have five solid pitchers locked in: Koji, Kameron Mickolio, Jim Johnson (likely serving as closer), Chris Ray, and Cla Meredith. There is also a very good chance that Berken starts 2010 in the pen. Bass, despite his success this year, will still have to earn a spot in the pen next year, and Matt Albers will have to prove he belongs in the Bigs at all.

Mark Hendrickson is a free agent after this year, and I would like to see him brought back on, because he's been an effective left-handed option out of the pen (posting a 3.74 ERA as a reliever) and because, let's face it, we don't have any other LHP relief options. Danys Baez is also a FA, a case of addition-by-subtraction.

Michael Vick

2009-08-13T17:47:00.000-07:00

Forgive me if I move away from baseball for a moment, but Michael Vick, it's being reported, just signed a two-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles. I won't bother recounting the details of his sordid story because they are so well known.

With Vick returning to the league, you're going to hear a lot of talk about how he's going through a difficult period in his life, that he has served his time, and that he deserves the shot he's getting with the Eagles. All of that is true. What is also true is that Vick tortured and murdered dogs for sport. Vick was making tens of millions of dollars a year, and he facilitated, hosted, and participated in dog-fighting to make an extra forty grand every now and again. Was it really about the 40k? Or was it about the sick thrills he got by holding dominion over another living being? Vick's crimes were grievous, and grievously has he answered them: His career is destroyed and will never truly be repaired, his reputation and image have been destroyed and will never be repaired, and he lost two years of his life in jail. He has paid his debt to society, and I have no objection to his return. But let us not minimize his crimes, or forget that he mutilated animals for the sheer visceral pleasure of it all.

My "hero"

2009-08-13T12:17:00.001-07:00

So I guess it's okay to start calling pro athletes "heroes" again.

After Sept. 11, for those who have forgotten, there were countless articles talking about how 'we really have to reevaluate our priorities' and that 'we can't keep calling our athletes heroes when the real heroes, firefighters and police officers, go so unsung.' I was a huge fan of such a sentiment then and I'm a huge fan of it now; I've never bought into the cult that surrounds sports, even when I was playing three different sports a year during high school. So often the people we elevate are just the worst of the worst. Your ability to turn on a fastball or shoot a puck says nothing about your character, and we did well to remember that when we finally started taking pro athletes off the pedestal.

It seems like that chapter in sports coverage has ended, though. I haven't kept track, but I've heard more "heroes" and "heroics" than I have in years this season. After the photos of Josh Hamilton relapsing surfaced, there was an article published on MLB.com unironically titled "Psychology in baseball: Heroes are human". It almost feels like sportswriters have been looking for an excuse to bust the term out again, as though they wanted to use it all these years but couldn't because public opinion had turned against them.

This is all anecdotal, of course, so keep your ears open: As we reach the stretch run of the season, and after that the postseason, I'll bet money that we'll hear more than a dozen players called "heroes" on national television. The term is a crutch for broadcasters and sportswriters that they shouldn't ought to use.

Thoughts on Matusz vs. Halladay

2009-08-10T03:39:00.000-07:00

Hmph. Well, so much for that "great pitching match up." Brian Matusz got chased after 2.2 innings, surrendering five earned runs, all on three home runs.

I found this game very frustrating to watch because Matusz threw nothing but fastballs and changeups through the first two innings. The Orioles pitching staff has really emphasized working off the fastball to the young pitchers. Chris Tillman, who's best pitch is his huge 12-6 "spike curve", has spoken of being forbidden to throw his fastball in warm-ups and in simulated pitching sessions in order to help him develop his fastball. That's great! That's a good idea. Working off the fastball makes your breaking pitches even better. But to throw nothing but fastballs and changeups in an actual game? Matusz didn't reach the majors as a two-pitch pitcher, why would you think he'd last in the majors as a two-pitch pitcher? He finally started going to his slider and curve in the third, but then he got taken deep a third time and it was over. He actually stayed in the game for a few minutes longer, making a few meaningless throws to the runner on first before getting pulled. I remember being surprised at Dave Trembley giving him the hook at such a time, when he seemed to be getting ready to throw to the next batter, but in retrospect he had probably made up his mind as soon as the third HR left the park and was just having him stall until Brian Bass was ready to come in. I guess I'm okay with that--you've got to take it slow and protect your young guys, not just hang them out to dry. Must be frustrating for Matusz, though: You wait five days to pitch, throw only 62 pitches, then you've got to wait another five days to get out there.

I'm honestly not worried about the home runs; young pitchers get hit, it happens, you take your lumps as a rook and get better. What did bother me, though, is that he kept falling behind hitters, going to 3-0 counts twice and going to several 3-1 counts. His biggest strength was supposed to be his ability to pound the strike zone, and watching him miss over and over is much more worrisome than seeing him get hit.

On the bright side, Halladay had another great game, so it wasn't like the game was a total bust if you were watching it. Melvin Mora, Luke Scott (who has always hit Halladay well), and yes, Cesar Izturis all had RBI hits off Halladay. Cesar Izturis?! Yes, Cesar Izturis.

Nick Markakis reached in his 30th straight game. Since the All-Star break he's hitting .323/.376/.570. That's, uh, really good. Markakis has always, even since he was in the minors, been a second-half player, and considering how bad his first half was, he should be due for an elite second half.

The Orioles begin a West Coast road trip Monday evening, with Guthrie, Hernandez, and Berken scheduled to pitch against the A's. I think the O's should do well with Guthrie on the mound, as the spacious Coliseum should help Guts minimize his home runs, which is his #1 weakness. As for Berken and Hernandez, they're in the same boat as Tillman and Matusz, just trying to figure out how to pitch in the majors and hopefully earn a spot. There is a lot of pressure on Berken especially, because 1.) He's pitched like crap and 2.) He wasn't really ever hyped as 'the next big thing' in the way the others were, and if he keeps slipping he may not get a second shot.

Orioles @ Blue Jays, Sunday 8/9

2009-08-09T08:13:00.001-07:00

If you can, tune in at 1:00 PM to watch an amazing pitching match up between the Orioles and Jays, as Brian Matusz makes his second major league start against Roy Halladay.

Matusz, for those who don't know (and that's probably a lot of you considering how irrelevant the O's have been) is arguably the best LHP yet to achieve rookie status in pro baseball. He throws four different pitches (fastball, changeup, slider, curve) and locates them all for strikes. His fastball is about 92-93, but what makes him so good is his breaking stuff. His slider down and in against RHPs is his out pitch, and his curve is plus-plus. He throws two types of changeups: The circle change and a straight change. While his change is his weakest pitch, he can still get guys out on it, as he did in when he recorded his first big league strikeout against Miguel Cabrera off a circle change. He truly attacks hitters, winning with deception: Players have a very hard time picking up his pitches out of his hand.

Against the Tigers in his first start, Matusz faced a lineup comprised entirely of right-handed hitters (welcome to the bigs, kid). He went five, giving up one earned run and striking out five. He should be facing a less potent lineup today in the Jays.

Matusz has top-of-the-rotation stuff and command, and he could honestly be one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball as soon as next year. He's young, sure, but he's enormously polished and has a lot of experience. Between the ages of 18 and 22 he's thrown about 500 innings between college, the US National team, and the minors, and he's dominated every level he's pitched at. I don't mean "had success", I mean dominated.

Last night, Brian Roberts fouled a ball off of his leg; he's day-to-day, and so the Orioles have really had to shake up their lineup. Lineup courtesy of Roch Kubatko:

1 - Felix Pie LF
2 - Caesar Izturis SS
3 - Adam Jones CF
4 - Nick Markakis RF
5 - Aubrey Huff 1B
6 - Melvin Mora 3B
7 - Luke Scott DH
8 - Matt Wieters C
9 - Robert Andino

Yikes. That lineup is, uh, impotent. Manager Dave Trembley is pretty clearly going with defense, especially by starting Pie over Reimold in left. I understand that you want the kid to build confidence, but it's going to be hard for him to win when you can't score runs, and it's going to be hard to score runs when you bat Izturis second against Roy Halladay. I guess the objective is to try and run against the Jays.

Personally, I would have had Reimold DH and had him bat second (and, for the record, batting Reimold second is the best managerial decision Trembley's made all year); I would have had Izturis and Andino bat eight and ninth, respectively; I would have batted Markakis third and Jones fourth to create a righty-lefty-righty 2-3-4. I don't really have a problem with Mora starting over Wigginton, since 1.) It's not like Wigginton is that great a hitter anyways and 2.) If you've got the strategy of "Put a great defense behind Matusz", that's fine and you should stick to it. Don't expect Wieters to see many pitches to hit. If he's patient I think he can work some walks.

Brian Matusz is only getting his shot now because Brad Bergesen took a line drive off his shin about a week ago; Matusz should be shut down after maybe another four or five starts. If you want to get a glimpse of the future, tune in today.

Josh Hamilton

2009-08-09T00:40:00.000-07:00

Josh Hamilton today acknowleged the photos of him in a bar in Tempe last January, drinking, dancing with young women, doing shots off them. The photos would be racy by anyone's standards; for Hamilton, they're almost unbelievable. For a recovering alcoholic and drug addict, not to mention a married man with children, photos of a trio of beautiful women doing shots off his shirtless torso are...humiliating? Disappointing? Heartbreaking.

Hamilton issued a statement admitting that the photos were real. "It reinforces one of the things that I can't have is alcohol," he said in a press conference. "...I wasn't mentally fit or spiritually fit. It just crossed my mind 'Can I have a drink?' Obviously I can't. One drink leads to two and two drink leads to 10 or 12. When I was in AA, one saying I heard was one drink is too many and 1,000 is never enough."

I'm not going to link to the photos, because if you want them you can find them, and I don't want to spread those images around if I don't have to.

I've made a habit of putting down millionaire athletes who treat women like toys to be used, treat alcohol and drugs like God-given rights, but I have nothing but the deepest sympathy for Hamilton. Alcoholism is just such a misunderstood condition in our society, because alcohol is so ingrained in our culture.

Hamilton, since collapsing in a heap on his grandmother's doorstep completely fucked up on heroin and alcohol, has been, by the accounts of his those who know him, an exemplary human being, someone who used his love for family, his love for the game, and his love for Christ to pull himself from the absolute lowest ebb to the paragon of American success. What people often don't realize is that it doesn't matter who you are when you're sober: When an alcoholic like Hamilton gets a drink into his system, he may as well be a different person. Loving father? Dedicated athlete? Devout Christian? It gets thrown out the window once you take a sip. I can only imagine the...terror Hamilton's friends and family must have felt when they saw those photos. Seeing an alcoholic relapse is like watching a person die, because the man that was no longer remains.

The frightening part is, who's to say I wouldn't succumb to the same temptations? That you wouldn't? That anyone wouldn't? It's so easy to take one more drink, take one more gorgeous young woman back to your room, take one more puff, pop one more pill. Everyone around you is always encouraging you, reassuring you, hey, it's okay. You don't need to feel ashamed. I do my best to teetotal, but it's around me constantly, and so I drink from time to time. Even then, I can't tell you the number of times I've been called a pussy or a faggot to my face because I didn't want to take a drink. Our society champions alcohol as a manly, virile thing, forgetting that, in the end, it's quite literally a poison.

My heart goes out to Hamilton. I know that's a hollow phrase, but I mean it with every fiber of who I am. If I were to meet Hamilton, I would tell him that love will help him stay strong. I have nothing but sympathy for the pain he has to endure, and nothing but support to offer, as meager as such an offering might be. Hamilton's a Christian, while I'm an atheist; it was in you all along, Hamilton. That's the most beautiful part. It was in you all along.

The Anti-Pujols

2009-08-08T04:24:00.000-07:00

Let me quote a few things from a recent article I read about Pujols while researching just exactly what he had said over the issue of steroids (parsed down for brevity's sake):

---

"I can understand people being disappointed with A-Rod and Manny. But just because Manny made a mistake, now I have to pay? Just because A-Rod made a mistake, now I have to pay? Oh, guilt by association? That's wrong. For people to be suspicious of me because of the year I'm having and for people to say I just haven't been caught, that makes me angry and disappointed. I would never do any of that crap. You think I'm going to ruin my relationship with God just because I want to get better in this game? You think I'm going to ruin everything because of steroids? Come test me every day if you want. Everything I ever made in this game I would give back to the Cardinals if I got caught. I can understand why people don't know who they can trust or their hero was caught. I want to be the guy people look up to. But I want to be the person who represents God, represents my family and represents the Cardinals the right way. So many people can't wait until I do something negative. I can't understand it. That's sad, because I want to be that poster boy in baseball. Just give me the chance."

Pujols, who has three children with his wife, Deidre, and another baby on the way, goes to great lengths to maintain his untarnished image and uphold his deep religious beliefs. He doesn't drink or smoke. He doesn't have a tattoo or wear earrings. He doesn't go to bars, nightclubs or any place where his character could be assaulted.

"If we're in a hotel and a woman gets on the elevator by herself, I'll wait for the next one," Pujols says. "People have their agenda. You have to be careful who you can trust."

Says Giant Randy Johnson, a five-time Cy Young Award winner, "I think Albert is the one guy in our game who could go to the opposition, say something, and they'd listen. That's how highly people regard him."

And the 6-3, 230-pounder is saying things more often, especially when it comes to showing respect for the game. The baseball cap should be worn properly. The jersey tucked. The back pockets in.

"I see teams take their jerseys out when the game is over," he says. "To me, that's not professional. I don't care what you do when you get off the field, but don't do it on the field. You don't want kids to see negative things."

"Just because you make $100 million, just because people say you're one of the best, doesn't mean you don't work hard."

"It's as if he wants to not only be the best player today," Cardinals outfielder Chris Duncan says, "but the greatest player who ever played."

---

I'm glad that Pujols is so intensely vocal on the issue of steroids, as 1.) It makes me actually believe that he isn't on them and 2.) It's the sort of thing that helps people get past any disillusionment caused by steroids. I know there are a lot of people, like my father, who are incredibly cynical about the whole thing, but they still follow baseball closely because "At least Albert isn't juicing." A lot of people think Placido Polanco, because of his body type, uses steroids; I don't, because Pujols is close friends with Polanco and godfather to one of his kids. I don't think Pujols would associate himself with someone if they used (Polanco and Pujols were teammates from 2000-2002). Additionally, I think Pujols' willingness to stand up and act as a figurehead gives people a symbol to rally around; imagine if Hank Aaron and Albert Pujols publicly worked together to get the 2003 drug test results revealed. How could anyone say no?

What I found particularly interesting was the second half of the article, the part about professionalism. I was reminded of one specific player: Prince Fielder.

Fielder was eating up headlines the other day for his confrontation with Guillermo Mota. For those who missed it, Mota, a former teammate of Fielder's, beaned Fielder on the fat part of his thigh in the ninth inning of a 17-4 Dodger win. Mota got tossed; Fielder lifted himself to his feet and seemed to be saying something along the lines of 'Why the hell would he do that?' He looked more perturbed than anything else; he didn't rush the mound, that's for certain. After the game, though, a furious Fielder tried to enter the Dodgers lockerroom, presumably to confront Mota. He tried repeatedly to get past a Dodger-hired usher watching the door and several Brewers, including Ryan Braun, before relenting and turning back.

I don't know exactly what was going through Fielder's mind, either before, during, and after the beaning; what I do know is that his actions in the Dodger Stadium hallways were those of an idiotic child. If Fielder actually felt like he was being thrown at, he should have rushed the mound. Once he didn't, though, the ship had sailed on his chance to personally retaliate--maybe the Brewers could have thrown at Russell Martin or James Loney the next game, but Fielder's opportunity to take matters into his own hands was over. I don't know exactly how I feel about his on-field reaction: I am a huge believer in protecting your teammates and retaliatory beanings (though only if they are retaliatory), so I guess by extension I ought to support Fielder if he tries to protect himself. However, HBPs are just a natural part of the game, while trying to punch a guy in the face is not. I'm not sure how exactly I would feel about the situation if Fielder had charged Mota.

What I am certain of is that Fielder embarassed himself after the game. His actions were ridiculous: Did he really think he was going to gain entrance to the Dogder lockerroom and choke slam Mota? His actions were unprofessional: You're a grown man that a lot of kids look up to. Try and act like it, not throw rock-stars-trashing-their-hotel-room temper tantrums while screaming obscenities. His actions, most of all, were stupid: As anyone knows, and as I mentioned in my last post, the MLB polices itself, and the front offices have made it clear that, even though rushing the mound and punching a guy in the face technically constitutes assault (after all, if you did that on the street you'd be criminally liable and could go to prison), you can get away with it. What you CAN'T get away with is trying to fight people away from the field. Fielder was uncomfortably close to opening a particularly dangerous can of worms.

Note how Pujols wishes players would treat the game with more respect and, amongst other things, maintain a decent appearance on the field. What's the first thing Fielder does after the 27th out is recorded? Untuck his jersey. Pujols tries to set a decent example and doesn't drink or smoke. Fielder (in Pujols' backyard, no less) went through the entire Home Run Derby award ceremony with chaw in his lip and his jersey untucked, and spent the whole night dipping. And now this.

I was actually a fan of Fielder's last year, as his brief friendship with CC Sabathia was great entertainment. The two seemed to feed off the passion of the other, and it was a lot of fun to watch. After his display of a total lack of respect for himself and the game, though, you can count me out.

Hank Aaron, etc.

2009-08-07T01:58:00.000-07:00

The topic that's burning up everyone up lately is the issue of the 2003 steroid user list. Some people want it revealed, some don't.

I think context is a little important. Back in 2003, the Player's Association, headed by the soon-to-be-retried Donald Fehr, agreed to have random drug testing. If 7% or more of the players tested positive, then mandatory, regulated drug testing would be enacted the following year. It was also agreed that, no matter what, the results of the test would be absolutely secret and would not be revealed to anyone.

Well, I think we know how that worked out.

Now, Hank Aaron is giving his opinion on the matter. In an interview with the AP: "I wish for once and forever that we could come out and say we have 100 and some names, name them all and get it over and let baseball go on," Aaron said. "I don't know how they keep leaking out. I just wish that they would name them all and get it over with." Link to the story here.

So what to do? Release the list? Destroy it forever? Release the list - and punish the players on it?

I had a very spirited argument with a fellow baseball fan for whom I have a deep respect, and he argued that the list should not be released on the grounds that it would be illegal. There was a contract agreement between the PA and the MLB front offices, and releasing it would violate the letter of the law.

And...he's right. It would be illegal if the list were revealed, as the players who consented to the tests in 2003 did it on the condition of absolute anonimity. Some have pointed out how a lot of players (most notably Albert Pujols) have been extremely vocal in their condemnation of steroids and would likely support the revelation of the complete list; and, after all, if the players themselves (or a large portion) want the list revealed, how can the Association say no? The problem, of course, is that so many of the players who were tested in 2003, whether they tested positive or negative for steroids, are no longer playing and the Association no longer represents their interests.

The elephant-in-the-room for the PA is that the front offices can do whatever they feel like, and they know it. The front offices of the NFL, MLB, and other pro sports leagues have routinely been empowered by the US legal system to police themselves and do whatever they feel like. The MLB is a legal monopoly, and if Selig and company decide that releasing the list is the way to go, then the list is going to get released. Maybe they won't just come out and say "This is what we're doing, anyone who doesn't like it can jump off a cliff"; there will probably be some business with 'anonymous sources', but in the end the list will get revealed.

Regardless of whether or not you like the hazy ethical standards employed, I think most people feel that the publication of the hundred or so remaining names would be good for baseball. There is a huge amount of cynicism surrounding baseball, and rightly so: The game turned a blind eye to performance-enhancing drugs for a decade. There are Hall of Fame voters who didn't vote for Tony Gwynn or Cal Ripken, Jr. because 'everyone from that era is tainted'; and, while that is idiotic logic, I think it reflects the intense disillusionment that has been sweeping over baseball for a long time.

We live in an era in which there are no suprises. Mark McGwire was one of the most popular players to ever put on a uniform and hit well over 500 home runs; as I write this, he has failed three times to reach the Hall of Fame. Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz, the Lennon and McCartney of Boston, each test positive and we shrug. For God's sake, every one on the planet is convinced Barry Bonds took steroids and he's the all-time home run king!

If we really want to write the epilogue for The Steroid Era and then close the book, letting us see the lists will allow us to finally get a real handle on the situation. After all these years, we can lay all the paranoia and suspicion to rest and see just who was using.

Of course, the PA may still vehemently oppose the release of the list. There job is not to appease fans, but to protect the players, and allowing the list to reach the public eye, while good for the careers of many, would likely be ruinous in some form or another. Some might disagree with me, and point to Manny Ramirez's sustained popularity in Los Angeles in spite of his fifty-game suspension; I would refer them to McGwire, and remind them that most players would be devastated if they knew they were never going to reach the Hall of Fame, even if no other punishment was meted out.

Anyone with an eye for history knows that the eventual leaking of the complete list is likely inevitable. The PA can sit on their hands (I'll let you guess where their thumbs will be) and pretend the bell can be un-rung, or they can make sure that when the list is released, the players named aren't utterly trampled over. A lot of sportswriters and fans have been calling for lifetime bans of any player that tests positive for steroids; while this is a horrible idea that clearly hasn't been well thought through (someone explain to me how banning Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez for life from the game is good for baseball), anything can happen when people convince themselves of the righteousness of their cause. If the PA embraced the publication of the list instead of fighting it, they could help guide the raging flood.

And yet...even if they did, my statement that it would 'write the epilogue' for the Steroid Era is really just a pipe dream. We won't really be able to put it behind us until twenty years have gone by since the last known PED user has retired, and those that were associated with steroids have either seen themselves elected to Cooperstown or snubbed fifteen times in a row and had their names fallen off the ballot.

Either way, we're paying for the sins of the past.

"Bran Torino" Wins Final Vote

2009-07-09T18:58:00.000-07:00

Thanks to each team cross-promoting the other's nominee, Shane Victorino and Brandon Inge won the NL and AL All-Star Final Vote, respectively. They're probably not the best players of the five, but so what? Shane "The Flyin' Hawaiian" Victorino is a lot of fun to watch, and probably should have gone last year, so even though I voted for Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval (best nickname in baseball right now) I'm not annoyed the way I have been in years passed. I know the ASG is about honoring excellence, but it's also about the pleasure of baseball for its own sake, a chance to put together a crowd-pleasing spectacle. It's part of the reason I hate the fact that the Game determines home-field advantage in the World Series: It introduces an unncessary competitive element to the atmosphere.

I'm disappointed Inge won, since that means the best 2B in the American League isn't in the ASG. Ah well, the "Bran Torino" coalition of the two was goofy, fun, and reasonably memorable--everything the All-Star Game should strive to be.

All-Star Game 'Final Vote' Picks

2009-07-08T22:38:00.001-07:00

Ian Kinsler and Pablo Sandoval.

The AL race is much more interesting, as Kinsler and Carlos Peña would be slam-dunk All-Stars in any other year, Figgins is having a hell of a year out in Anaheim, and as I write this Inge is in the lead...I mean, there are a lot of very good players in baseball, and the MLB front offices routinely do a good job of identifying worthy candidates for the Final Vote. I will say that Figgins is probably the most exciting player of the five to watch, and I would love to see him go. Peña leads the AL in home runs and is hitting for a ton of power, but his glove is way down this year, and anyways he never had a shot because there is no way the fans are voting a .230 hitter in on the Final Vote. I'm selecting Kinsler because he probably should be starting at 2B anyways, has a better glove than any of the other four, and I don't like that RedSoxNation managed to steal away the starting spot from him at the last second.

Matt Kemp and Sandoval are the only real choices in the NL. I was going to vote for Kemp, but then I was reminded that he bats 7th or 8th most games. Even if Kemp was hugely better (which he isn't), I don't know that you can say a guy out of the 8-hole, no matter what his numbers, is having as much of an impact as a guy who bats 3rd and hits .330.

Vote early and vote often!

Photos from the Reds@Phillies, 7/7

2009-07-08T12:55:00.000-07:00

I was visiting my parents in Philadelphia and, seemingly inevitably, we headed into the city to see the Phillies play.

Before I start talking about the game, let me just say that if you're planning to drive into Philly to watch baseball...don't. The traffic is insane, the roads aren't big enough to handle the congestion anyways, the signs aren't clear, and the roads are in poor condition. On top of all that, when the game ended and we were leaving, there was no one policing or directing traffic; as a result, we sat in our cars and literally did not move one inch for forty-five minutes. If you want to see the Phillies play, take the train into the city. Don't drive.

Anyways, enough bitching. It was a tough loss for the Phillies, losing 4-3. During the third inning, the team had a chance to bust it wide open, as the bases were loaded with no outs, but three guys got up and three guys sat down. The Phillies didn't score another run the rest of the night. During the ninth inning, Brad Lidge gave up a run to give the Reds the lead and then got tagged with the loss.

Now for photos, all shot from Sec. 424, Row 12, Seat 8 (click to enlarge):

By reputation most people know Citizens Bank Park as a great stadium, but I was still impressed by how nice it was. The place was absolutely beautiful and immaculately maintained. Sitting in the upper deck, I got a great view of the city stretching away from the stadium. Also, I know everyone has said this, but this stadium may as well be an exact copy of Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The ivy growing up a brick wall in dead center, the height of the walls, the power alleys...the aesthetic is basically cut and pasted from the Yard, which makes sense considering the same company was the architect for both. That said, I prefer Oriole Park because of the way right field is twenty-five feet high and is connected to Eutaw Street...it's just a nice little wrinkle that gives the park its own flavor, like the ivy at Wrigley or the Green Monster.

Chase Utley taking his cuts. I was very pleased with how this picture turned out.

I'm not the first to say this, but Utley is pretty clearly the most underrated player in baseball--and I say this acknowledging the fact that he's about to start the All-Star game, and make his fourth consecutive appearance in the Mid-Summer Classic. Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard won back-to-back MVPs, but Utley was probably a better player than either in both seasons. Heading into 2008 I thought he might finally get the respect he deserves, but then Dustin Pedroia won the AL MVP and was annointed 'the best second baseman'. I agree that Pedroia had a better season last year than Utley, but Utley's been doing it for years. In any given season he's the best defensive 2B in baseball; in fact, Bill James and the guys over at The Fielding Bible rated him at +47 plays last year; in other words, he made 47 more plays than the average second baseman last year, the best total by any player at any position [note: I can't tell you how pleased I am by this fact. As I was first getting into sabermetrics, I got discouraged and started wondering why we even bother watching the games when it seems like every observation a person can make on baseball is somehow overturned by the stats. Shortly thereafter, my folks moved to Philadelphia, and as I helped them move in over the summer, I caught about thrity to forty Phils games on TV. I don't know why, but in the back of my head I kept telling myself that I'd read that Utley was an average defender. The more I watched him, though, the more I thought he was a spectacular defender, and learning that the stats see him as an elite defender was an...edifying moment; let's leave it at that. He actually made a great play last night, fielding a hard-hit ball with a the runner on first in motion, tagging the runner and throwing to first for the out. It was better in person.].

I could go on and on and start talking about his power, telling you things you already know, but let's skip that. Something you probably don't know, though, is that Utley gets hit more than any other active player. He led the majors in HBP in 2007 (with 25), 2008 (with 27), and is second in the majors this year, with twelve, behind Kelley Shoppach, with 14. Hmm...power hitting second baseman who gets hit by a lot of pitches? Sounds like future Hall of Famer Craig Biggio.

The shift deployed versus Ryan Howard.

I could turn this into a full blog post...I think Howard is going to be out of baseball inside of three, maybe four seasons, and if the Phillies were smart they would trade him as soon as possible. Howard doesn't run, doesn't hit for average, doesn't play defense, doesn't walk that much (and only walks against lefties), is a complete black-hole against LHPs...the only thing Howard does well is hit home runs off right-handed pitchers. I mean, Ryan Howard is a platoon player right now, and he's only 29 with very little mileage on his body. Where do you think he's going to be when he's 33, 34, 35? It's interesting that arguably the most underrated and most overrated players in baseball share an infield.

These next few pictures I like to call Brad Lidge Blows the Game: A Photo Essay in Three Acts.

This first picture is titled Brad Lidge Prior to Blowing the Game.

This second picture is titled Brad Lidge In the Process of Blowing the Game.

And this last photo is entitled Brad Lidge After Blowing the Game.

fins

All ribbing aside, what the hell is up with Lidge? Someone should do a breakdown of his season and compare it to last year in order to see what's up. Incidentally, while we're on the topic of mercurial relievers, B.J. Ryan just got released by the Jays. Frailty, thy name is closer!

Hopefully I'll be able to make a habit of this every time I go to a game. Hope you enjoyed.

The Hidden Language of Statistics

2009-07-07T01:09:00.000-07:00

It's amazing how sometimes, you look at the numbers, and you can read a story in them. I'm not just talking about 'well he broke into the league at such a time, and in following seasons he became more accomplished by some measure, and lately he declined until he departed the sport.' I'm talking about reading a story, seeing an act in several stages, with scene changes, protagonists, beginnings, middles, and ends. Just today, I was reading the career numbers of Alfonso Soriano, which can be found here. (It's important that I refer you to the precise numbers I was perusing, as the bevy of different kinds of statistics means that one site's listings of a player's numbers can be very different from another site...I can't tell the story if we're not speaking the same language.)

Over the last few years, Alfonso Soriano has been a very good player, an elite player. He's hit extremely well and also been an oustanding fielder; BaseballProspectus has him saving 60 fielding runs above average between 2006 and 2008, equivalent to roughly six wins. However, he went though a huge boost between 2005 and 2006, which is unexpected considerng he turned 30 that year. Since that jump, however, his numbers have been gently sliding downward as he progresses into the late stage of his career. Though he bounced around the order, batting third one year, fifth another, he's basically been a leadoff man the whole time, stealing a lot of bases at a pretty good rate (78% for his career), even though he's always had a lot of power (hence the two years in the heart of the order).

Well...don't you see? Soriano is a guy who was hindered by his own talent. Coming up, coaches likely focused on wheels and decided he was a leadoff man. Considering his build and his great speed, they tried to make him a second baseman. Soriano wasted the whole first half of his career trying to figure out how to play the infield when he should have been a corner outfielder. He focused on his speed and ran a lot, which pulled him away from his power hitting: After years of jumping around between slugging in the .400s, then slugging in the low .500's, then slugging under .500 again, Soriano reeled off three straight years of slugging more than .530 after signing with Washington in 2006 and finally moving to left field. And, as he hit for more power, his steals declined, as he stole fewer than 20 bases in 2007 for only the second time in his career; he repeated this in 2008.

Throughout all this Soriano has remained a good hitter. But what if he had spent his prime seasons doing what he ought to be doing: Hitting in the heart of the order, and playing the outfield? Considering how well he hit after moving from second, and how well he has fielded left, it's hard not to think he was a potential Hall of Fame LF who was ruined by coaches who tried to make him a second baseman and leadoff man. I think that, if he had come up as a left fielder who batted third or fifth, he could have hit close to 500 home runs.

I'm throwing around words like "wasted" and "ruined", but Soriano has been regularly outstanding. He'll almost certainly hit 300 home runs and will probably steal 300 bases, making him only the seventh member of the 300-300 club (along with Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds, Willie Mays, Reggie Sanders, Steve Finley, and Andre Dawson). Though he likely isn't headed to the Hall of Fame, he has remained a great player.

Now, I may have missed something. Perhaps Soriano, as a teenager, convinced himself that he was a leadoff man, and has insisted on leading off throughout his career. Maybe he got forced to the position during the minor leagues (I can't find any records of what positions he played in the minors). Still, I think I'm basically on the mark with my analysis. I've been following Soriano for a few years, and I've always thought he was a middle-of-the-lineup guy. I just never realized what a story could be found looking at his career totals.

There are stories, fascinating stories, stories that make baseball what it is; they are all around us, and it is only the guaze-thin shielding of statistics that separates us from them. If we can pare the folds and learn to read the hidden language of statistics, we can reveal those stories in whole.

Return to blogging, part two? Not really

2009-07-06T00:25:00.000-07:00

I know no one will read this, so I'll keep this brief. I'm going to be starting a real blog in the fall; but until that website is erected, I need a venue to record my thoughts. Besides, blogging some for fun will be a good way to get in shape for when it actually counts.

Jeff Bagwell: Hall Bound?

2007-07-22T13:13:00.000-07:00

In what I hope becomes a regular feature for this site, I want to break down the stats of certain players who are right on the border of the Hall of Fame and see if their numbers stack up: do they belong in the Hall of Fame? For this post, the player I'll be looking at is Jeff Bagwell.

Bagwell is a player only sabermetric guys seem to like as Hall of Famer. As a first baseman who played in the Steroid Era, the bar is indeed set high for him, and the fact that he didn't reach 500 home runs seems to set many against him.

Before I begin, I think it's worth noting that Eddie Murray is the only HOF first baseman who played in the 90's, and he was at the end of his career; we're going to have to elect SOME of the mashers who played in the Steroid Era (unless of course they used steroids, i.e. McGwire).

If elected, Bagwell's stats would rank, amongst Hall of Fame 1B:

Home runs: 5th
RBI: 6th
OBP: 4th
Slugging: 5th
Total bases: 6th
OPS+: 5th

When you consider that there are fourteen Hall of Fame first basemen, it's clear that Bagwell stacks up with the historically great. But what about his contemporaries? How does Bagwell rank among the best of the 90's? After all, the 90's offensive explosion means that a lot of players who are "historically" great are actually only very good, only above average.

Bagwell played his first full season in 1991. Between 1991 and 1999, amongst only first basemen, Bagwell ranks, in the following categories:

Home runs: 5th (it is worth noting that two of the players ahead of him, Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmiero, are steroid users, and another, Frank Thomas, is almost certainly a HOFer)
RBI: 3rd (again, Palmiero and Thomas are ahead of him)
OBP: 3rd (McGwire and Thomas)
Slugging: 3rd (McGwire and Thomas)
Total Bases: 3rd (Palmiero and Thomas)
OPS+: 3rd (McGwire and Thomas)

So, excluding two steroid users, Jeff Bagwell was the second-best first baseman in baseball during the 90's, and the best in the NL.

But what about players at all positions? After all, first basemen are not played for their defense: You get a 1B for his hitting. How does Bagwell compare to all players during the steroid era ('93-'04)?

Home runs: 6th
RBI: 3rd
OBP: 7th
Slugging: 14th
Total bases: 4th
OPS+: 6th

The numbers aren't as good for Bagwell.

So far, I have been sticking to mostly traditional stats. What about sabermetric stats?

The first thing I noticed about Bagwell's sabermetric stats is his incredible .323 career EqA; that's a jaw-droppingly good number, and far higher than I was expecting. His 90's EqA was .335, while his Steroid Era EqA is .326. He also has an exceptionally high career WARP3 of 135.5, with a 90's total of 93.8 and a Steroid Era total of 116.7. How do these numbers compare with his contemporaries?

For the following comparisons, I tried to include players of many different calibers, such as sure-fire Hall of Famers (Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Frank Thomas), players right on the border (Gary Sheffield, Jim Thome), players that clearly are not going to make the Hall (Fred McGriff, Luis Gonzalez), as well as, for good measure, steroid users (Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmiero) and a few others (Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa) in order to find out where Bagwell falls in.

(Since not everyone on the list had begun playing in 1991, and a few retired before 2004, I balanced the statistics so that they favored each player; for instance, when calculating the EqA for Fred McGriff, who retired before the 2002 season, I left the entries for those final years blank instead of putting a 0, so as not to drag down his numbers. A few players played games in the early 90's, but played sparsely and in few games, so their EqA numbers aren't very good; I excluded those years. For WARP3, since it is a counting statistic, I included all the numbers I could. Statistics used were taken from Baseball Prospectus. I used the "adjusted for season" numbers for EqA.)

The Data Charts

Bagwell's numbers stack up much more favorably than his "normal" stats might indicate. Instead of ranking sixth, seventh, or eighth, Bagwell consistently ranks second, third, or fourth.

Final Prediction: Bagwell is obviously a great hitter, and ranks as a historically great first baseman. While the more regular stats seem to indicate that he is not Hall material, his EqA and WARP3 are borderline Hall caliber: for instance, he ranks second in both '91-'99 and Steroid Era WARP3, meaning he was the second most valuable player during his career span (after Barry Bonds). On the other hand, his EqA is fourth in every category, and his Career WARP3 is fourth as well; other than 1994, the strike-shortened year, Jeff Bagwell was never THE best hitter in baseball, and his lower Career WARP3 indicates that he didn't endure the way many of the greats did: he only played 14 full seasons, which is rather shorter than most superstars. The fact that Frank Thomas played the same position over the same span and was clearly better hurts his cause as well. Because he never reached a major career milestone (no 3000 hits, no 500 home runs, no 50 home run season), and because his "traditional" stats are good-but-not-great, Bagwell's sabermetric stats would have to overwhelm me in order to consider him Hall of Fame caliber, and they do not. I do not think Jeff Bagwell will get elected to the Hall, nor does he deserve it.

Glossary of Terms

2007-07-22T12:50:00.000-07:00

I plan to throw around a lot of terms in this blog that many baseball fans may or may not be used to. So that I may avoid defining the same stat over and over, and in order to avoid any serious confusion, I'm going to create a glossary of terms for people to check out if they ever stumble across a phrase or stat that they are unfamiliar with.

VORP: Value Above Replacement Player. A replacement player is definied as someone with the minimum threshold of talent necessary to be a professional MLB player. VORP is an all-in-one offensive statistic designed to figure out how many more runs a given player is worth compared to a replacement level player at the same position (very important). If a player has a VORP of 10, he is worth ten more runs than a replacement level player; on average, ten VORP runs equal one win for a team, so a player with a VORP of ten is worth one more win to his team than a replacement player. VORP allows for easy comparisons of players at different positions. VORP is a counting stat, much like home runs or RBIs, meaning the best players will see their totals steadily rise as the season progresses. VORP does not account for defense.
EqA: Equivalent Average. A summation of a player's total offensive output (including steals), adjusted for league, era, and even ballpark, calibrated into a format similar to batting average. A .260 EqA is completely average; .300 is very good; .350 is Hall of Fame-level.
FRAR: Fielding Runs Above Replacement. Much like VORP, only for defense. How many runs does a given player save with his defense compared to a replacement level player?
FRAA: Fielding Runs Above Average. Same as FRAR, only the player's defense is compared to the average major leaguer at the same position, not merely someone good enough to only just make the majors.
WARP (WARP1, WARP2, WARP3): Wins Above Replacement Player. An all-in-one statistic that attempts to quantify a player's contribution to his team. Like VORP, a player's position factors into the rating. WARP accounts for offense, defense, base-running, and pitching (if necessary). The difference between WARP 1, 2, and 3 is a series of adjustments: I will typically only use WARP3 on this website, because it has the greatest number of adjustments and allows for comparisons of players from any era. For more, visit http://www.baseballprospectus.com/
Replacement Player: A concept I will refer to repeatedly on the site. A replacement player is a ballplayer with the minimum level of talent necessary to make the majors, and no more. A team comprised entirely of replacement players will be one of the worst teams of all time: We're talking 1899 Cleveland Spiders badness (in fact, it could be argued that the Spiders are the only baseball team in history that actually was made up of only replacement players; prior to the 1899 season, Cleveland's owners bought a team in St. Louis and shipped all the stars of the Spiders, incuding Cy Young, to St. Louis in exchange for swill; the Spiders posted a record of 20-134). For example, a replacement level pitcher will have an ERA of roughly 6.00.
Enhanced OPS: A stat I invented as a means to figure out how steals impact slugging and how caught stealing impacts OBP. For more, see my "Return to Blogging" post.
OPS+/ERA+: An adjustment to measure how much better or worse, percentage wise, a player is compared to league average in either OPS or ERA. An OPS+ of 100 is league average (and is always league average), while a player with an OPS+ of 101 is 1% better than the average player. The same is true for ERA.

I expect I'll update this list as I think of more terms to include.

The MVP and CY Young of the NL

2007-07-16T15:28:00.000-07:00

And now for something completely different. Let's get right to it. First, the MVP:

Top 10 Leaders in NL OBP

Barry Bonds - .497
Todd Helton - .440
Chipper Jones - .424
Derrek Lee - .420
Albert Pujols - .412
Chase Utley - .405
Miguel Cabrera - .398
Aaron Rowand - .396
Brad Hawpe - .392
Mark Loretta - .392

Top 10 Leaders in NL Slugging

Prince Fielder - .616
Miguel Cabrera - .598
Chipper Jones - .596
Chase Utley - .583
Hunter Pence - .575
Matt Holliday -.574
Ryan Howard - .563
Barry Bonds - .557
Ken Griffey Jr. - .556
Chris Duncan - .555

Not as much jumps out at me: The numbers are closer together (the difference between the best slugger and the tenth best slugger is 61 points, while the difference between the best AL slugger and the second best is 48 points) and some of the guys on the leader boards don't have much of a chance: despite leading the NL in OPS, Barry Bonds has built up so much ill-will and plays (relatively speaking) so few games that is seems almost impossible he'll win MVP. The same goes for guys like Todd Helton and Matt Holliday; Helton is an obscene .329/.476/.507 at home but only .297/.407/.436 on the road (still great numbers, but not MVP-caliber), while Holliday's number are an average .299/.355/.478 on the road. The three players who stand out to me are Chipper Jones, Chase Utley, and Miguel Cabrera, who are each mashing and getting on base.

Top 10 NL Leaders in VORP

Chase Utley - 47.2
Hanely Ramirez - 46.4
Miguel Cabrera - 44.5
Chipper Jones - 39.6
Barry Bonds - 38.5
Jose Reyes - 38.2
Matt Holliday - 36.9
Russell Martin - 36.8
Edgar Renteria - 35.8
Prince Fielder - 35.2

Top 10 NL Leaders in EqA

Barry Bonds - .365
Chipper Jones - .344
Miguel Cabrera - .333
Albert Pujols - .326
Chase Utley - .326
Chris Duncan - .318
Prince Fielder - .318
Hanley Ramirez - .316
Todd Helton - .312
Ken Griffey Jr. - .311

...okay, look, I know Bonds is having another appallingly great season. I recognize that, if I had my choice of any one active player to come to bat with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth, there is no one I'd rather take. But dammit! There is no way Bonds will win MVP. People just won't vote for him. Trust me. I think it is also worth pointing out that Bonds does not match up with the best when it comes to counting statistics, in part due to his limited playing time: for instance, he is not even in the top 10 in the NL for Runs Created, despite having the best OBP and EqA.

Excluding Bonds, I am left with Chipper Jones, Chase Utley, and Miguel Cabrera as the top contenders for MVP. However, it would be utterly hypocritical of me to exclude Bonds for only playing in 81 games...and then include Chipper Jones, who has only played in 68. Despite his monster stats, Jones will not be my pick for MVP.

Breaking Down Utley and Cabrera

Utley leads Cabrera in OBP and VORP, while Cabrera leads Utley in slugging and EqA. First, I want to take into consideration the players' base-stealing abilitiy.

Chase Utley's Enhanced OPS:

(210 + 5)/360 = .597 Expanded Slugging
(120 + 32 + 15 - 1)/413 = .402 True OBP x 3 = 1.205 Weighted OBP
.597 + 1.205 = 1.802 Enhanced OPS

Miguel Cabrera's Enhanced OPS:
(198 + -1)/331 = .595 Expanded Slugging
(108 + 40 + 2 - 1)/378 = .394 True OBP x 3 = 1.182 Weighted OBP
.595 + 1.182 = 1.777 Enhanced OPS

Chase Utley's stealing skills negate Cabrera's slight edge in slugging. But what about defense? Cabrera plays 3B, while Utley plays 2B; conventional wisdom suggests that Utley, due to the nature of his position, likely saves more runs with his glove than Cabrera. What do the stats say?

Statistic: Cabrera's stat/Utley's stat

FRAR: 7/16

FRAA: -1/1

The stats agree with conventional wisdom. Utley not only saves more runs with his glove, but is actually a slightly above average defensive 2B, while Cabrera is a slightly below average defensive 3B.

Final Prediction: If the season ended right now, Utley would win MVP. I also expect him to keep up his numbers and win it at the end of the season. Unlike Magglio Ordonez, Utley is not playing completely over his head: while he is indeed posting career high numbers in every category, he is only 28 years old, and his numbers are not unreasonably better than years passed. For instance, his BABIP is .374 this year...but it was .349 last year. Not an unbelievable jump. Utley's superior numbers at a tougher defensive position will likely net him the MVP at the end of the year. That said, look out for Chipper Jones, who is tearing the cover off the ball and plays on a better, more highly-visible and popular team than either Utley or Cabrera.

The NL Cy Young

Top 5 in NL ERA

Chris Young - 1.97
Jake Peavy - 2.19
Brad Penny - 2.39
John Maine - 2.91
Derek Lowe - 3.05

Top 5 in NL WHIP

Chris Young - 1.02
Jake Peavy - 1.06
Ted Lilly - 1.06
Rich Hill - 1.14
Ben Sheets - 1.16

It's a two-horse race, with the top pitchers of San Diego going head to head. John Maine is a distant third, with the fourth best ERA and sixth best WHIP. I excluded Florida's Sergio Mitre from the ERA list because he hasn't thrown 100 innings yet. Here are the other major statistics to consider:

Statistic: Peavy's stat/Young's stat

K/9 innings: 9.45/8.78

K/BB: 3.68/2.97

Innings per HR: 39.6/27.4

Peavy tops Young in every category.

Final Prediction: I think that Peavy would win the Cy Young if the race ended today, and will win it at the end of the year. Chris Young seems to be playing well over his head: he has never even sniffed a sub-3.00 ERA until this year, while Peavy won the ERA crown in 2004 with a 2.27 ERA, and also posted an ERA of 2.88 in 2005. With his track record and far better strikeout rate, look for Jake Peavy to win the NL Cy Young.

Side note: All the statistics I used during these last two posts are courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Reference, and the Hardball Times. All of these sites are linked to over there, on the right, and I encourage every baseball fan out there to check them out. They're great websites and invaluable statistical treasure troves.

The MVP and Cy Young of the AL

2007-07-13T14:54:00.001-07:00

The Cy Young and MVP races are pretty tight in the AL this year. Before I jump into the fray and pick my guys, I want to set out my criteria for MVP and Cy Young:

1.) The MVP cannot be a pitcher. That's what the Cy Young is for. Pitchers just don't play enough to be considered for the MVP award, especially in these modern times: While I do not begrudge Bob Gibson's MVP in 1968, the conditions in baseball have changed so much that no one is going to throw 28 complete games with 13 shutouts, or top 300 innings and post a 1.12 ERA. The MVP must be separate from the Cy Young.

2.) More than stats determine the MVP. I will not give the MVP to a player on a last place team, period. I don't care what his stats were, I don't think Alex Rodriguez deserved the MVP in 2003. On the flip side, I think the Cy Young should go to the pitcher with the best pure numbers, regardless of how well their team is doing.

3.) The position of an MVP candidate matters. A catcher who hits 30 home runs is more valuable than a first baseman who hits 40. A RF who hits 40 home runs is more valuable than a DH who does the same. This is what VORP is all about. That said, VORP will not be the be-all-end-all statistic; I will consider pure numbers, not just "most valuable per position".

I'm going to be throwing around some odd stats, so here are their definitions:

VORP: Value Above Replacement Player. A replacement player is definied as someone with the minimum threshold of talent necessary to be a professional MLB player. VORP is an all-in-one offensive statistic designed to figure out how many more runs a given player is worth compared to a replacement level player at the same position (very important). If a player has a VORP of 10, he is worth ten more runs than a replacement level player; on average, ten VORP runs equal one win for a team, so a player with a VORP of ten is worth one more win to his team than a replacement player. VORP allows for easy comparisons of players at different positions. VORP is a counting stat, much like home runs or RBIs, meaning the best players will see their totals steadily rise as the season progresses. VORP does not account for defense.
EqA: Equivalent Average. A summation of a player's total offensive output (including steals), adjusted for league, era, and even ballpark, calibrated into a format similar to batting average. A .260 EqA is completely average; .300 is very good; .350 is Hall of Fame-level.
FRAR: Fielding Runs Above Replacement. Much like VORP, only for defense. How many runs does a given player save with his defense compared to a replacement level player?
FRAA: Fielding Runs Above Average. Same as FRAR, only the player's defense is compared to the average major leaguer at the same position, not merely someone good enough to just make the majors.

Let's start with the major statistics:

Top 10 AL Leaders in OBP

David Ortiz - .439
Magglio Ordonez - .437
Gary Sheffield - .418
Vladimir Guerrero - .414
Kevin Youkilis - .414
Reggie Willits - .412
Jorge Posada - .407
Alex Rodriguez - .407
Brian Roberts - .406
Derek Jeter - .404

Top 10 AL Leaders in Slugging

Alex Rodriguez - .658
Carlos Pena - .617
Magglio Ordonez - .586
Justin Morneau - .571
David Ortiz - .569
Gary Sheffield - .564
Carlos Guillen - .563
Curtis Granderson - .563
Torri Hunter - .551
Victor Martinez - .549

Two things immediately jump out at me when I look at these lists: One, A-Rod's slugging is insane. Two: Magglio Ordonez is having a monster year, as he is second in OBP and third in slugging.

More important statistics:

Top 10 AL Leaders in VORP

Alex Rodriguez - 54.5
Magglio Ordonez - 48.9
David Ortiz - 42.0
Gary Sheffield - 41.1
Ichiro Suzuki - 41.1
Vladimir Guerrero - 40.2
Victor Martinez - 39.1
Jorge Posada - 38.5
Grady Sizemore - 37.1
Brian Roberts - 36.2

Top 10 AL Leaders in EqA:

Alex Rodriguez - .338
Magglio Ordonez - .337
Carlos Pena - .332
David Ortiz - .327
Gary Sheffield - .322
Vladimir Guerrero - .321
Jorge Posada - .311
Carlos Guillen - .308
Victor Martinez - .307
Justin Morneau - .305

I excluded Jim Thome and Mark Teixiera from the EqA list due to lack of plate appearances. The more I stats I look at, the more clear it becomes that Alex Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez are the cream of the crop. Ichiro Suzuki is worthy of MVP considerations, but is not in the same class as the former two; and while Sheffield is having a great year, he is pretty much a full-time DH, meaning his statistics would have to be far and away the best for me to consider him.

Breaking Down Rodriguez and Ordonez

Rodriguez leads Ordonez in three of the four categories I looked at: slugging, VORP, and EqA. Ordonez, however, has a significant lead in OBP, and in fact Rodriguez's leads in VORP and EqA are negligible. I want to look at more stats to find out how they match-up. First up: Enhanced OPS.

Magglio's Enhanced OPS:
(191 + 1)/324 = .592 Expanded Slugging
(116 + 46 + 2 - 1)/375 = .435 True OBP x 3 = 1.304 Weighted OBP
.592 + 1.304 = 1.896 Enhanced OPS

A-Rod's Enhanced OPS:
(217 + 7)/330 = .678 Expanded Slugging
(103 + 49 + 9 - 2)/393 = .404 True OBP x 3 = 1.213 Weighted OBP
.678 + 1.213 = 1.891 Enhanced OPS

Well that's incredibly close. A-Rod has a .001 edge in EqA, Magglio has a .005 edge in Enhanced OPS.

How does each player's defense impact his team?

Statistic: A-Rod's stat/Magglio's stat
FRAR: 12/3
FRAA: 4/-3

Now we begin to see a significant difference. Alex Rodriguez's defense is magrinally above average, while Ordonez's defense is maginally below average.

Final Prediction: Ordonez is playing WAY over his head. His career batting average is .309 and he's never had an OBP of .400 or better, while he is hitting .358 with an OBP of .437 this year. His batting average on balls in play (i.e. non-home run hits) is an astounding .386. He is due for a serious slump any day now. As his batting average falls, so will his OBP, and thus any sort of edge he has on Rodriguez. Rodriguez, on the other hand, isn't doing anything superhuman (by his standards): his current .407 OBP would only be the fourth-best of his career, and he even posted an EqA of .350 in 2005 (which led the majors). He's twice topped 50 home runs, so his gaudy home run total so far is not necessarily unexpected. If the season were to end today, Magglio Ordonez would win the MVP because he and A-Rod essentially have identical stats, but the Tigers are so much better than the Yankees and players on better teams overwhelming tend to win the MVP. That said, expect Ordonez's numbers to drop off soon and for A-Rod to win the award at the end of the season.

The AL Cy Young Award

Unlike the MVP, there are more straightforward statistics to consider here.

Top 5 AL Leaders in ERA

Dan Haren - 2.30
Johan Santana - 2.60
Mark Buehrle - 2.98
John Lackey - 2.98
Kelvim Escobar - 3.04

Top 5 AL Leaders in WHIP

Jeremy Guthrie - 0.99
Johan Santana - 1.02
Dan Haren - 1.03
James Shields - 1.05
Mark Buehrle - 1.08

Dan Haren, Johan Santana, and Mark Buehrle are the frontrunners for the Cy Young. Here are some other important statistics to consider:

Statistic: Haren's stat/Johan's stat/Buehrle's stat
K/9 innings: 7.02/9.35/5.16
K/BB: 3.15/4.29/3.08
Innings per HR: 11.75/7.52/8.24

Buehrle is obviously the least of the three, trailing Santana and Haren in every category other than innings per HR. As for the other two, they trade stats: Haren has a better ERA and HR rate, but Santana strikes out a significantly greater number of batters, has a better K/BB rate, and has a better WHIP.

Final Prediction: This is much like the MVP vote. While, if the season ended today, Haren would win the Cy Young, look for Johan Santana to win it...again. History has shown that Santana only gets better and better as the season progresses, and Haren's ERA and WHIP ought to rise, considering that he doesn't strike out a lot of batters and doesn't have Santana's track record. If Johan Santana pitches true to form, he will win the 2007 AL Cy Young.

Return to Blogging

2007-07-10T21:28:00.000-07:00

So, uh, yeah. I took a few year hiatus from blogging. What can I say. I'm clearly not cut out for day-by-day blogging. That said, I hope I can get a post up once a week or so. I enjoy being able to ramble on about baseball, and this blog gives me a good forum to do so whenever I want (even if no one is listening).

Since I last posted, I've gotten more heavily into sabermetrics. Rereading my old posts, I'm embarassed the way I touch on rather quaint, outdated notions, i.e. giving credibility to Gold Gloves and using stats like RBIs and fielding percentage for serious analysis. For instance, if I were to re-write my 'Best All-Time' post, I'd mention what a slam-dunk Williams is as the LF choice, as he has a better OBP, better slugging, better batting average, and a better strikeout rate than Barry Bonds. Bonds' only advantage is his longevity (in turn fueled by steroids).

It is because of sabermetrics that I've gotten more interested in newer statistics. One thing, recently, that has really interested me, is creating a stat that factors in the benefits/drawbacks of steals.

For instance, if a player reaches first and then steals second, it is essentially the same thing as hitting a double. On the other hand, if a player is thrown out attempting to steal, it is as though he never was on base in the first place. These notions have a clear implication for slugging and OBP totals.

It took me a few days to figure out how to modify a player's slugging. Despite creating several different formulas, I kept running into the drawback that a player would merely have to be successful on more than 50% of his attempts to see an increase in his offensive numbers, something known to be false: a player must be successful at least 72 to 73% of the time to add to his team's run production.

I eventually realized that I was thinking too small: I had only been trying to modify slugging, when in reality I should tackle OPS. Add a player's net number of steals (successful steals minus times caught) to his total base count (giving you a new slugging percentage [it is worth mentioning that, short of shifting through a player's entire career, it is impossible to get a perfect slugging percentage using this formula: a player who is thrown out trying to steal second is costing himself a time on base and one total base, while a player getting thrown out trying to steal third costs himself a time on base and two total bases. That said, since the overwhelming majority of steals and times caught stealing occur as a player attempts to steal second, I will treat every steal and time caught as though the player were heading from first to second]) and subtract the times caught stealing from his times on base (giving you a "true" OBP); add them together and you'd have an OPS that accounted for a player's base-stealing ability.

Formula:

-New slugging: (Singles + (2 x Doubles) + (3 x Triples) + (4 x Home runs) + Net steals)/AB
-"True" OBP: H + BB + HBP - CS/PA
Since OBP is really suppossed to be a measure of how often a player gets out, "True" OBP seems to be a better stat than normal OBP, as it factors in outs on the basepaths. Add the two together for a modified OPS.

Simple, right? Wrong. Again, it became clear to me that, using this formula, once again I would run into the problem that any player who was successful on greater than 50% of his attempts would see an increase in his OPS. It was then that I realized how flawed a statistic OPS is.

On base percentage is a more important statistic than slugging. They are not equal, and the fact that OPS treats them as such means that it is flawed. Clearly, I would have to go a step further in calculation.

Just how much more important OBP is, though, is up for debate. I am going to modify OPS based on the assumption that OBP is three times more important than slugging, meaning that a player must be successful on 75% or more of his attempts to benefit his team. So I'll stick with the previous formula, only this time I'll weight OBP to be worth three times as much:

-"True" OBP: H + BB + HBP - CS/PA
-Weighted OBP: (H + BB + HBP - CS/PA) x 3
Add the weighted OBP together with the normal slugging percentage to get a Weighted OPS. The league average for Weighted OPS in 2006 was 1.443, while Travis Hafner led the majors with a 1.976 Weighted OPS. The 2006 average for "True" OBP was .327

Now to see how steals influence those numbers:

-Expanded Slugging: (Singles + (2 x Doubles) + (3 x Triples) + (4 x Home runs) + Net steals)/AB
-Weighted OBP: (H + BB + HBP - CS/PA) x 3
Add them together for Enhanced OPS. In 2006 the MLB average for Expanded Slugging was .441, while the average for Enhanced OPS was 1.424. Enhanced OPS is designed to be a quick-and-easy assessment of a hitter's skill at the plate, accurately weighting OBP against slugging and considering a player's skill on the basepaths as well.

I am comfortable with these statistics, and think they are useful tools in analyzing players. I originally set out to create these statistics because I wanted to analyze players with no power but lots of speed. Specifically, I wanted to use them to analyze Ozzie Smith, especially to answer the question: "Should Ozzie Smith have won MVP in 1987?"

In Ozzie's best year, 1987, he had an OBP of .392, slugged .383 (meaning he had a .775 OPS) and stole 43 bases with 9 times caught stealing (82%). The league averages that year were .331 OBP, .415 slugging, and .747 OPS. He ultimately finished second in MVP voting to Andre Dawson. First question: How did Ozzie's steals impact his lowest average, his slugging percentage?

Ozzie Smith's 1987 Expanded Slugging:
(138 + (40 x 2) + (4 x 3) + (0 x 4) + 34)/600 = .440

How did his times caught stealing impact his OBP?

Ozzie Smith's 1987 Weighted OBP
(182 + 89 + 1 - 9)/706) x 3 = ..372 x 3 = 1.117
Weighted OPS: 1.500
Enhanced OPS: 1.557

Here's a chart to simplify things:

Stat: Ozzie's statistic/MLB average for 1987
Expanded slugging: .440/.429
"True" OBP: .372/.318
Enhanced OPS: 1.577/1.384

Clearly, the Oz is above league average. But what about compared to Andre Dawson's 1987 stats?

Stat: Dawson's Statistic/Ozzie's Statistic
Expanded slugging: .581/.440
"True" OBP: .323/.372
Enhanced OPS: 1.550/.1577

So there you have it. Ozzie Smith was actually a better hitter than Andre Dawson in 1987. Combined this with Smith's all-world defense at shortstop, and I think it is unquestionable that Ozzie was a better MVP choice than Dawson. Now, Jack Clark on the other hand...

Questions Heading Into the Second Half

2005-07-11T22:14:00.000-07:00

As the All-Star break closes, there are certain questions that we must ponder...

1.) Who will win the Eastern divisions?

In the NL, the Washington Nationals have a two-and-a-half game lead on the Braves. The Nats have been winning with pitching, ranking fourth in the NL in team ERA. They have strength in the starting staff, with aces like John Patterson (2.91 ERA) and Livan Hernandez (12-3 record), as well as in the bullpen, with the unhittable Chad Cordero (31 saves, 1.13 ERA) closing out games. However, their offense is arguably the worst in baseball, as they are dead last in runs scored (357 so far).

On the other hand, there is Atlanta Braves. The Braves, who of course have won 13 straight division titles, are coming on strong. They are third in the NL in runs scored, as well as second in the NL in ERA. Despite early bullpen troubles (see: Danny Kolb), they seem to have everything patched up. It remains to be seen if the Nationals can hold them off.

Meanwhile, in the AL, everything has gotten cluttered. The Red Sox are in first place, with the Orioles two games back and the Yankees two-and-a-half games back. This past week has allowed the Orioles and Yankees to draw close; while the Orioles fumbled terribly, going 5-12 in their last 17 games before the break, the Red Sox weren't able to pull away, going only 4-6 in their last ten games. The Yankees have gotten hot (7-3 in their last ten) and are just waiting to pounce on the Sox, should the Boys from Beantown stumble.

The Orioles need to make moves if they want to contend. After leading a charmed existence in April and May, injuries hurt them in June. Regardless, they cannot expect to contend with their current pitching staff. They need to trade for another pitcher (Jason Schmidt?) and find out what the the hell is wrong with Sammy Sosa - perhaps even by benching the aging slugger.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, need to play to their potential. They've slumped as of late, and going 1-3 in a four game series against Baltimore was very poor, as they missed an opportunity to but the Birds away. Finding out how to use Schilling most effectively (either waiting longer to have him join the starting staff or allowing him to become a closer) will be a boost for them. They need to find a middle reliever to help their shoddy bullpen.

The Yankees, on the other hand, must play consistently. They'll go on a winning streak, then a losing streak, then a winning streak, then a losing streak. On top of that, they must beat divisional opponents. They are only 4-6 versus the Orioles, 4-5 versus the Red Sox, and an incredible 3-7 versus the Devil Rays. They, too, need middle relief help; letting Stanton walk and trading Quantrill for May and Redding was a good start, but they are still very weak in the bullpen. Also, even though he's in the midst of a dominant season, it remains to be seen if Mariano Rivera can close against the Red Sox.

Final Predictions: Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox

2.) Can anyone stop the St. Louis Cardinals?

The St. Louis Cardinals are playing like a force of nature. They lead the majors in team ERA, have an ace in Chris Carpenter, have a quality closer in Jason Isringhausen and have no real weakness, pitching-wise. After losing their shortstop, catcher, and second baseman during the off-season, the Cards went out and got David Eckstein (All-Star starter), Mark Grudzielanek (only a moderate player, but still an upgrade over Womack) and Yadier Molina (it is unclear if he is as good defensively as Matheny, but he's been better with the bat and is throwing out basestealers at a higher rate than anyone else). And, of course, the Red Birds have a killer lineup, leading the NL in runs scored. They are 11.5 games up on the second place Houston Astros.

Is this any different than last year? Will the Cardinals blow through the regular season only to falter in October? Or will they win the World Series?

I say that they can and will win the Series. Because they have an ace (Carpenter), they will be able to take on other teams more effectively. In addition, no one else seems up to stopping them.

Final prediction: Cardinals win the pennant and the Series

3.) Will Barry Bonds play this year?

After missing all of the year up to this point, word is that Bonds will try to return by mid-August.

To be totally honest, I don't expect Bonds to return...Ever. I think that there is little coincidence between the institution of a serious drug-testing policy and Bonds disappearing. I'm sure he has (or had) a legitimate injury, but I don't think he wants to risk getting caught. He knows that his name will be mud, now and forever, if he tests positive for steroids. He'll never be considered one of the best of all time, because people will say "Well, he did take steroids..." Bonds is nothing if not egotistical, and can't bear the thought of not being mentioned in "Best All-Time" conversations.

Final Prediction: We've seen the last days of Bonds.

4.) Can Derek Lee hit for the Triple Crown?

To be honest, I don't see why not. His batting average is .041 better than the second place man (Pujols), he's tied for the major league lead in home runs (27) and he's 4 RBI back of the NL Leader. Breaking it down by category...

Batting average: Lee could win this, but he could also bomb. Lee is a career .275 hitter and has never hit .300 before. However, he is just so far ahead of the second place guy that even a long cool streak might not be enough to derail him.

Home runs: Again, Lee seems to be a bit over his head, though this seems a little more natural for him. His career best in homers is 32, but he consistently hits in the high twenties and low thirties. Also, one of his main competitors (Andruw Jones) is a notoriously streaky hitter who's never hit 40 home runs before. I could definitely see Lee winning this category.

RBIs: This is probably the toughest category for Lee to win, mostly due to the Cubs lineup. Because he bats third in the order, he has fewer RBI opportunities than a player batting fourth, and the guys in front of him (Neifi Perez, Jerry Hairston, Jr., and others) aren't exactly the best leadoff men. Plus, he has to contend with RBI machine Carlos Lee.

Final predictions: Lee could win the batting title and will have the most home runs, but I don't see him winning the RBI crown.

5.) Who will win AL MVP?

There are only a few candidates who are MVP-worthy: Miguel Tejada, Alex Rodriguez, and David Ortiz. Unsurprisingly, each is a member of the AL East.

Tejada, coming off a stellar .311, 34 HR, 150 RBI season, isn't doing quite as well this year. He is still tearing the cover off the ball - .323 average, 114 hits, 19 homers - but but his RBI stats are way down, as he only has 61 (he had 75 at the All-Star break last year). He is the heart and soul of the Orioles, and is the main reason that they are contending this year. Without him, the O's are a very mediocre team.

Rodriguez started the season at a torrid pace, hitting home runs left and right, including a phenomenal 3 HR, 10 RBI game. However, he's cooled off, as his totals are only 23 home runs and 71 RBIs (this is much, much lower than what he was on pace for at mid-June). He's got a respectable average, with .317.

David Ortiz continues to crush the ball. He stats so far are .314, 21 HRs, and 75 RBIs. He has hit plenty of walk off shots, but the big knock against him is that he doesn't play defense - he's pretty much a full time DH.

Personally, I think that whichever team wins the AL East will have their player win MVP. If Baltimore wins the division, expect Tejada to win MVP; same for Ortiz and Rodriguez. However, Rodriguez is a media darling, so he may (undeservedly) win the award even if he finishes with worse numbers and the Yankees finish in third place.

Final Predicitions: Tejada will have the best stats, Ortiz and the BoSox will be in first place, but Rodriguez will win the award.

I Hate All-Star Managers

2005-07-11T11:08:00.000-07:00

Chris Carpenter is going to start the All-Star game for the NL.

Let that sink in. Chris Carpenter is going to start the All-Star Game for the NL.

This move, frankly, sucks. Carpenter is the third-best pitcher in baseball and has no business starting the game. Here are his stats:

Carpenter: 13-4, 128 K's, 2.51 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3 CG's

That's pretty good...Until you compare these stats to the numbers of Dontrelle Willis and Roger Clemens.

Willis: 13-4, 98 K's, 2.39 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 5 CG's, 4 SHO's
Clemens:7-3, 112 K's, 1.48 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 0 CG's

Roger Clemens should be starting the All-Star game. His ERA is better by over an entire run (!), while his WHIP is better as well. Sure, he only has seven wins, but he also has 8 ND's in which he gave up a total of six earned runs.

Clemens is in the midst of the best season any pitcher has had since Bob Gibson threw 13 SHO's in 1968. To deny him the starting spot in the All-Star game is embarrassing to the game of baseball.

What makes it worse is that this is not the first time that a manager has made a terrible homer pick. For example, last year, Joe Torre selected his setup man, Tom Gordon, to be an All-Star pitcher. It was a terrible call because there were so many more deserving setup men out there (like, say, B.J. Ryan) - and this year, the same thing is happening.

This is just further proof that the decision to make the All-Star game determine home field advantage in the World Series is a bad one. La Russa is undoubtedly playing to win in this game; he wants his pitcher to go deeper into the game, and probably feels more comfortable asking Carpenter to do that.

The All-Star game is officially messed up on so many levels. Roger Clemens should be starting the All-Star Game.

Ruining All-Star Weekend

2005-07-09T18:27:00.000-07:00

I want to compliment Major League Baseball on their attempt to make the Home Run Derby an international affair. Baseball is played all over the world, and attempting to make the All-Star Weekend a multi-cultural event is fun and exciting. The idea was to select eight players, with each player hailing from a different country and have them compete in the Derby.

As per usual, there were several hitches, namely injuries. Derek Lee was sidelined with an strained left shoulder, and so Mark Texiera replaced him as an American representative. Miguel Tejada didn't want to represent the Dominican Republic; he recommended David Ortiz, and Big Papi was only to happy to comply.

However, there was a hitch involving Japan. Hideki Matsui wasn't an All-Star, and felt that he shouldn't be in the Derby because he hadn't made the All-Star squad. This opened up the way for Ichiro Suzuki.

Now, Ichiro is not a power hitter. He had only 37 homers in his first four years and has only six home runs this season. However, it is pretty much agreed that he could hit 25 to 35 home runs if it was required of him. Every day in batting practice, he puts on a show for his teammates.

Unfortunately, the chance to see him demonstrate his power skills on a national stage was missed when he too declined the invitation. Desparate, the MLB chose as a replacement...

Hee-Seop Choi?

Choi, a fourth-year player, has never been much of a performer. He has 38 career homers, with a moderate 13 this season. He is not a big-name player and does not have legions of fans following him, the way Ichiro or Matsui do.

This move is bad on so many levels. For one, if you're trying to make it international, why would you go with Korea? There is no Korean influx of players in the majors - fact is, Choi is the only Korean big-leaguer. Instead, why not go have a representative of Mexico? Get Vinny Castilla. While not a big name player, he does have power, having hit more than 40 home runs three times and hitting 35 in 2004 (when he led the NL in RBIs). And if Vinny bows out, why not go with the ever-popular Julio "The Ageless Wonder" Franco?

By tainting the Home Run Derby, MLB is one step closer to making all of All-Star weekend totally uninteresting. The All-Star game was already messed up (due to the 'one representative from every team' rule) when Bud Selig made the insane decision to have the game determine home-field advantage in the World Series. That is batshit crazy. The All-Star game not only doesn't count in the standings, but it isn't even played like a normal game: each team will probably have around eight pitchers throw, and upwards of 20 to 25 position players will have had playing time by the end of the game. Why would you want a meaningless game determining home-field advantage in the most important series of the year?

The All-Star break should be one giant party. People should be going to the game, going to the Derby, drinking beer, having fun, tailgating, eating hot dogs, and enjoying the game of baseball. None of it should be serious; it's all just for kicks. So adding incentive to win - making it a serious competition - really hurts the whole weekend. I mean, don't you think that Albert Pujols, David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, and Tony La Russa will be playing cutthroat baseball because they want to win?

What's worse about the move to make the Home Run Derby international is that it stinks of a publicity stunt. With the World Cup of Baseball looming around the corner, MLB seems to be trying to get early publicity for it by turning the Derby into a international competition. This would be okay if everything went off with out a hitch. However, once certain players bowed out - such as Matsui, Ichiro, Derek Lee, and Miguel Tejada - MLB should've scrapped the whole idea and gone with a tradional Derby lineup. Keeping players like Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez out of the Derby is a crime - and so is letting in Hee-Seop Choi.

Inagural Post - All-Time Team

2005-07-07T15:49:00.000-07:00

I want to kick off this blog right. So, I figured I'd open up with something often argued, debated, and analyzed: Who would be on the all-time baseball squad? I am asking this question not as "Who is the best at each position?" but rather, who would I chose to make a functioning baseball team?

Outfield

Rightfield is as easy a decision as there could possibly be. George Herman "Babe" Ruth is and will probably always be the starter in right field in every "Best All-Time" list ever made. His numbers are well chronicled and instantly recognizable: 714 home runs (2nd all-time), .469 OBP (2nd all-time), .690 slugging (1st all-time). In addition to his staggering offensive numbers, his defense was excellent as well; his right arm was so strong that he was a pitcher with a lifetime ERA of 2.28.

Centerfield has only two legitimate candidates: Ty Cobb and Willie Mays. Cobb, like Ruth, has legendary numbers: a lifetime average of .367, 297 triples, 4,191 hits, 12 batting titles (including nine in a row), 23 straight seasons in which he hit over .300, three .400 seasons (reaching .420 in 1911), .433 career OBP, 892 steals, and 2,245 runs. Other than perhaps Rickey Henderson, he is the greatest leadoff hitter in the history of the majors.

Mays on the other hand, was a power hitter. His undeniable statistics include 3,283 hits and 660 home runs (one of only three players ever to reach the 3,000-500 plateau, with Rafael Palmeiro seven hits away from making it four), 1903 RBIs, .302 batting average, and 12 Gold Gloves (and he likely would've won more, had the award existed at the beginning of his career).

I would take Cobb because he is the best fit for the leadoff spot. I can find other power hitters like Mays, but there is no other reasonable option for the top of the lineup who is of the same caliber of Cobb.

Leftfield is the most interesting spot in the outfield. Two candidates stand head and shoulders above the rest: Barry Bonds and Ted Williams. Their stats are both phenomenal:

Bonds:
703 homers
.300 batting average
.443 OBP
.611 slugging

Williams:
521 homers
.344 batting average
.481 OBP
.634 slugging

In this instance, it is really a tossup. However, I must give the edge to Teddy Ballgame. Bonds' career has varied greatly. He didn't bat .300 until his fifth season and hit only 84 home runs in his first four seasons. Late in his career, he has become an absolute joke in the outfield. Meanwhile, Williams was always consistent, hitting 127 home runs in his first four seasons, while hitting .406 in his third season. He has the highest all-time on-base percentage, and while his total number of home runs might not match up with Bonds, it is important to remember that Williams lost three years to military service and one year to injury. While Bonds does hold the single-season home run record, he twice didn't hit 20. I am inclined to give the edge to the more consistent Williams.

Final selctions: Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Ted Williams

First Base

First base is a crowded position. Eddie Murray? Rafael Palmerio? George Sisler?

It's gotta be Lou "The Iron Horse" Gehrig.

Over a thirteen year period, Gehrig averaged 139 runs and 148 RBI a season. His lifetime batting average is .340; he holds the record for most grand slams all-time (23) as well as the AL single-season record for RBI (184).

Gehrig is a superior hitter to all the other power hitters at first base: McGwire, Palmeiro, and Murray. However, George Sisler is the one player that offers skills that Gehrig doesn't have. Sisler won two batting titles, hitting over .400 both times, and had a total of 257 hits in 1920, a record that stood for 84 years until surpassed by Ichiro Suzuki in 2004. He hit .300 or better 13 times and had a .340 lifetime batting average.

However, Gehrig is a better fit than Sisler because Sisler is a leadoff man, and I already have Cobb filling that role. I would take Gehrig because he is the ideal compliment to Williams and Ruth. He would be a perfect fit as the fifth hitter in the lineup, adding additonal power in the heart of the lineup, protecting the two in front of him while doing damage himself.

Second Base

In this instance, Joe Morgan is absolutely the perfect fit. Morgan, who hit 268 home runs (the record for second basemen) and had more than 40 steals nine times in his career, is exactly what this team needs: someone to hit out of the two-hole. Morgan, who spent most of his career batting second in the lineup (behind men such as Pete Rose), slides in perfectly into this squad.

Third Base

When discussing all-time third basemen, Mike Schmidt is generally conscensed as the best all around player. He hit over five hundred home runs, and was solid defensively. However, I'm going to select Brooks Robinson.

Because I already have Williams, Gehrig, and Ruth I have no need of yet another big slugger. Adding Schmidt would simply be overkill and frankly, wouldn't be much use to the team. So, on when it comes to the hot corner, my number one concern is defense - and Brooks Robinson fits the bill perfectly. Robinson holds the major league record for putouts, assists, chances, double plays and fielding percentage. He also holds the record for most Gold Glove awards, winning sixteen consecutive, from 1960 to 1975. In addition, he was no slouch with the bat - his 268 home runs was at one time an AL record for third basemen. He is the perfect compliment to the rest of this team.

Shortstop

Like third base, I am going with defense at this position. While players such as Honus Wagner and Cal Ripken, Jr. might be better overall, I believe that there is little debate that Ozzie Smith is the best defensive SS of all-time. The Wizard won thirteen consecutive Gold Gloves, from 1980 to 1992. He had phenomenal range and a strong enough arm to put out just about anyone who hit the ball his way. While he was rather poor with the bat - his lifetime batting average is only .262, and he hit only 28 home runs for his entire career - like Brooks, he is chosen for his defense. However, his ineffective offense means he will likely be batting very low in the lineup.

Catcher

In the pantheon of great catchers, I have narrowed it down to five players who stand out above all else: Roy Campanella, Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, and Ivan Rodriguez. Here are their season averages:

Campanella: 24.7 HRs, .276 avg, .360 OBP, .500 slugging, 5.7 passed balls, 8.4 errors, .988 fielding average
Berra: 23.3 HRs, .285 avg, .348 OBP, .482 slugging, 5.4 passed balls, 5.7 errors, .987 fielding average
Bench: 25.3 HRs, .267 avg, .342 OBP, .476 slugging, 7.0 passed balls, 7.2 errors, .987 fielding average
Fisk: 23 HRs, .269 avg, .341 OBP, .457 slugging, 7.6 passed balls, 9.5 errors, .987 fielding average
Rodriguez: 19 HRs, .306 avg, .347 OBP, .490 slugging, 6.6 passed balls, 7.6 errors, .990 fielding average

Based on this, you can see that Campanella is the most accomplished offensive player (with the hi ghest homer avergage, OBP, and slugging), while Berra is the best defensively. Fisk is the worst of the five, both offensively and defensivly, with the lowest OBP and slugging, as well as averaging the highest number of passed balls and errors.

For me, it comes down to Campanella and Berra. I have to give the spot to Berra. Not only is he the best defensively, but he also has a higher batting average (nine points higher than Campanella) and a home run rate fairly comparable to Campanella (23.3 versus 24.7). And while Campanella does have better slugging and OBP averages, I think that defense should be the number one concern for the catching position. Yogi Berra is the pick.

Final selections: Yogi Berra, Lou Gehrig, Joe Morgan, Brooks Robinson, Ozzie Smith, Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, and Ted Williams

Batting Order
1.) Cobb
2.) Morgan
3.) Williams
4.) Ruth
5.) Gehrig
6.) Robinson
7.) Berra
8.) Smith