Questions Heading Into the Second Half
As the All-Star break closes, there are certain questions that we must ponder...
1.) Who will win the Eastern divisions?
In the NL, the Washington Nationals have a two-and-a-half game lead on the Braves. The Nats have been winning with pitching, ranking fourth in the NL in team ERA. They have strength in the starting staff, with aces like John Patterson (2.91 ERA) and Livan Hernandez (12-3 record), as well as in the bullpen, with the unhittable Chad Cordero (31 saves, 1.13 ERA) closing out games. However, their offense is arguably the worst in baseball, as they are dead last in runs scored (357 so far).
On the other hand, there is Atlanta Braves. The Braves, who of course have won 13 straight division titles, are coming on strong. They are third in the NL in runs scored, as well as second in the NL in ERA. Despite early bullpen troubles (see: Danny Kolb), they seem to have everything patched up. It remains to be seen if the Nationals can hold them off.
Meanwhile, in the AL, everything has gotten cluttered. The Red Sox are in first place, with the Orioles two games back and the Yankees two-and-a-half games back. This past week has allowed the Orioles and Yankees to draw close; while the Orioles fumbled terribly, going 5-12 in their last 17 games before the break, the Red Sox weren't able to pull away, going only 4-6 in their last ten games. The Yankees have gotten hot (7-3 in their last ten) and are just waiting to pounce on the Sox, should the Boys from Beantown stumble.
The Orioles need to make moves if they want to contend. After leading a charmed existence in April and May, injuries hurt them in June. Regardless, they cannot expect to contend with their current pitching staff. They need to trade for another pitcher (Jason Schmidt?) and find out what the the hell is wrong with Sammy Sosa - perhaps even by benching the aging slugger.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, need to play to their potential. They've slumped as of late, and going 1-3 in a four game series against Baltimore was very poor, as they missed an opportunity to but the Birds away. Finding out how to use Schilling most effectively (either waiting longer to have him join the starting staff or allowing him to become a closer) will be a boost for them. They need to find a middle reliever to help their shoddy bullpen.
The Yankees, on the other hand, must play consistently. They'll go on a winning streak, then a losing streak, then a winning streak, then a losing streak. On top of that, they must beat divisional opponents. They are only 4-6 versus the Orioles, 4-5 versus the Red Sox, and an incredible 3-7 versus the Devil Rays. They, too, need middle relief help; letting Stanton walk and trading Quantrill for May and Redding was a good start, but they are still very weak in the bullpen. Also, even though he's in the midst of a dominant season, it remains to be seen if Mariano Rivera can close against the Red Sox.
Final Predictions: Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox
2.) Can anyone stop the St. Louis Cardinals?
The St. Louis Cardinals are playing like a force of nature. They lead the majors in team ERA, have an ace in Chris Carpenter, have a quality closer in Jason Isringhausen and have no real weakness, pitching-wise. After losing their shortstop, catcher, and second baseman during the off-season, the Cards went out and got David Eckstein (All-Star starter), Mark Grudzielanek (only a moderate player, but still an upgrade over Womack) and Yadier Molina (it is unclear if he is as good defensively as Matheny, but he's been better with the bat and is throwing out basestealers at a higher rate than anyone else). And, of course, the Red Birds have a killer lineup, leading the NL in runs scored. They are 11.5 games up on the second place Houston Astros.
Is this any different than last year? Will the Cardinals blow through the regular season only to falter in October? Or will they win the World Series?
I say that they can and will win the Series. Because they have an ace (Carpenter), they will be able to take on other teams more effectively. In addition, no one else seems up to stopping them.
Final prediction: Cardinals win the pennant and the Series
3.) Will Barry Bonds play this year?
After missing all of the year up to this point, word is that Bonds will try to return by mid-August.
To be totally honest, I don't expect Bonds to return...Ever. I think that there is little coincidence between the institution of a serious drug-testing policy and Bonds disappearing. I'm sure he has (or had) a legitimate injury, but I don't think he wants to risk getting caught. He knows that his name will be mud, now and forever, if he tests positive for steroids. He'll never be considered one of the best of all time, because people will say "Well, he did take steroids..." Bonds is nothing if not egotistical, and can't bear the thought of not being mentioned in "Best All-Time" conversations.
Final Prediction: We've seen the last days of Bonds.
4.) Can Derek Lee hit for the Triple Crown?
To be honest, I don't see why not. His batting average is .041 better than the second place man (Pujols), he's tied for the major league lead in home runs (27) and he's 4 RBI back of the NL Leader. Breaking it down by category...
Batting average: Lee could win this, but he could also bomb. Lee is a career .275 hitter and has never hit .300 before. However, he is just so far ahead of the second place guy that even a long cool streak might not be enough to derail him.
Home runs: Again, Lee seems to be a bit over his head, though this seems a little more natural for him. His career best in homers is 32, but he consistently hits in the high twenties and low thirties. Also, one of his main competitors (Andruw Jones) is a notoriously streaky hitter who's never hit 40 home runs before. I could definitely see Lee winning this category.
RBIs: This is probably the toughest category for Lee to win, mostly due to the Cubs lineup. Because he bats third in the order, he has fewer RBI opportunities than a player batting fourth, and the guys in front of him (Neifi Perez, Jerry Hairston, Jr., and others) aren't exactly the best leadoff men. Plus, he has to contend with RBI machine Carlos Lee.
Final predictions: Lee could win the batting title and will have the most home runs, but I don't see him winning the RBI crown.
5.) Who will win AL MVP?
There are only a few candidates who are MVP-worthy: Miguel Tejada, Alex Rodriguez, and David Ortiz. Unsurprisingly, each is a member of the AL East.
Tejada, coming off a stellar .311, 34 HR, 150 RBI season, isn't doing quite as well this year. He is still tearing the cover off the ball - .323 average, 114 hits, 19 homers - but but his RBI stats are way down, as he only has 61 (he had 75 at the All-Star break last year). He is the heart and soul of the Orioles, and is the main reason that they are contending this year. Without him, the O's are a very mediocre team.
Rodriguez started the season at a torrid pace, hitting home runs left and right, including a phenomenal 3 HR, 10 RBI game. However, he's cooled off, as his totals are only 23 home runs and 71 RBIs (this is much, much lower than what he was on pace for at mid-June). He's got a respectable average, with .317.
David Ortiz continues to crush the ball. He stats so far are .314, 21 HRs, and 75 RBIs. He has hit plenty of walk off shots, but the big knock against him is that he doesn't play defense - he's pretty much a full time DH.
Personally, I think that whichever team wins the AL East will have their player win MVP. If Baltimore wins the division, expect Tejada to win MVP; same for Ortiz and Rodriguez. However, Rodriguez is a media darling, so he may (undeservedly) win the award even if he finishes with worse numbers and the Yankees finish in third place.
Final Predicitions: Tejada will have the best stats, Ortiz and the BoSox will be in first place, but Rodriguez will win the award.
1.) Who will win the Eastern divisions?
In the NL, the Washington Nationals have a two-and-a-half game lead on the Braves. The Nats have been winning with pitching, ranking fourth in the NL in team ERA. They have strength in the starting staff, with aces like John Patterson (2.91 ERA) and Livan Hernandez (12-3 record), as well as in the bullpen, with the unhittable Chad Cordero (31 saves, 1.13 ERA) closing out games. However, their offense is arguably the worst in baseball, as they are dead last in runs scored (357 so far).
On the other hand, there is Atlanta Braves. The Braves, who of course have won 13 straight division titles, are coming on strong. They are third in the NL in runs scored, as well as second in the NL in ERA. Despite early bullpen troubles (see: Danny Kolb), they seem to have everything patched up. It remains to be seen if the Nationals can hold them off.
Meanwhile, in the AL, everything has gotten cluttered. The Red Sox are in first place, with the Orioles two games back and the Yankees two-and-a-half games back. This past week has allowed the Orioles and Yankees to draw close; while the Orioles fumbled terribly, going 5-12 in their last 17 games before the break, the Red Sox weren't able to pull away, going only 4-6 in their last ten games. The Yankees have gotten hot (7-3 in their last ten) and are just waiting to pounce on the Sox, should the Boys from Beantown stumble.
The Orioles need to make moves if they want to contend. After leading a charmed existence in April and May, injuries hurt them in June. Regardless, they cannot expect to contend with their current pitching staff. They need to trade for another pitcher (Jason Schmidt?) and find out what the the hell is wrong with Sammy Sosa - perhaps even by benching the aging slugger.
The Red Sox, on the other hand, need to play to their potential. They've slumped as of late, and going 1-3 in a four game series against Baltimore was very poor, as they missed an opportunity to but the Birds away. Finding out how to use Schilling most effectively (either waiting longer to have him join the starting staff or allowing him to become a closer) will be a boost for them. They need to find a middle reliever to help their shoddy bullpen.
The Yankees, on the other hand, must play consistently. They'll go on a winning streak, then a losing streak, then a winning streak, then a losing streak. On top of that, they must beat divisional opponents. They are only 4-6 versus the Orioles, 4-5 versus the Red Sox, and an incredible 3-7 versus the Devil Rays. They, too, need middle relief help; letting Stanton walk and trading Quantrill for May and Redding was a good start, but they are still very weak in the bullpen. Also, even though he's in the midst of a dominant season, it remains to be seen if Mariano Rivera can close against the Red Sox.
Final Predictions: Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox
2.) Can anyone stop the St. Louis Cardinals?
The St. Louis Cardinals are playing like a force of nature. They lead the majors in team ERA, have an ace in Chris Carpenter, have a quality closer in Jason Isringhausen and have no real weakness, pitching-wise. After losing their shortstop, catcher, and second baseman during the off-season, the Cards went out and got David Eckstein (All-Star starter), Mark Grudzielanek (only a moderate player, but still an upgrade over Womack) and Yadier Molina (it is unclear if he is as good defensively as Matheny, but he's been better with the bat and is throwing out basestealers at a higher rate than anyone else). And, of course, the Red Birds have a killer lineup, leading the NL in runs scored. They are 11.5 games up on the second place Houston Astros.
Is this any different than last year? Will the Cardinals blow through the regular season only to falter in October? Or will they win the World Series?
I say that they can and will win the Series. Because they have an ace (Carpenter), they will be able to take on other teams more effectively. In addition, no one else seems up to stopping them.
Final prediction: Cardinals win the pennant and the Series
3.) Will Barry Bonds play this year?
After missing all of the year up to this point, word is that Bonds will try to return by mid-August.
To be totally honest, I don't expect Bonds to return...Ever. I think that there is little coincidence between the institution of a serious drug-testing policy and Bonds disappearing. I'm sure he has (or had) a legitimate injury, but I don't think he wants to risk getting caught. He knows that his name will be mud, now and forever, if he tests positive for steroids. He'll never be considered one of the best of all time, because people will say "Well, he did take steroids..." Bonds is nothing if not egotistical, and can't bear the thought of not being mentioned in "Best All-Time" conversations.
Final Prediction: We've seen the last days of Bonds.
4.) Can Derek Lee hit for the Triple Crown?
To be honest, I don't see why not. His batting average is .041 better than the second place man (Pujols), he's tied for the major league lead in home runs (27) and he's 4 RBI back of the NL Leader. Breaking it down by category...
Batting average: Lee could win this, but he could also bomb. Lee is a career .275 hitter and has never hit .300 before. However, he is just so far ahead of the second place guy that even a long cool streak might not be enough to derail him.
Home runs: Again, Lee seems to be a bit over his head, though this seems a little more natural for him. His career best in homers is 32, but he consistently hits in the high twenties and low thirties. Also, one of his main competitors (Andruw Jones) is a notoriously streaky hitter who's never hit 40 home runs before. I could definitely see Lee winning this category.
RBIs: This is probably the toughest category for Lee to win, mostly due to the Cubs lineup. Because he bats third in the order, he has fewer RBI opportunities than a player batting fourth, and the guys in front of him (Neifi Perez, Jerry Hairston, Jr., and others) aren't exactly the best leadoff men. Plus, he has to contend with RBI machine Carlos Lee.
Final predictions: Lee could win the batting title and will have the most home runs, but I don't see him winning the RBI crown.
5.) Who will win AL MVP?
There are only a few candidates who are MVP-worthy: Miguel Tejada, Alex Rodriguez, and David Ortiz. Unsurprisingly, each is a member of the AL East.
Tejada, coming off a stellar .311, 34 HR, 150 RBI season, isn't doing quite as well this year. He is still tearing the cover off the ball - .323 average, 114 hits, 19 homers - but but his RBI stats are way down, as he only has 61 (he had 75 at the All-Star break last year). He is the heart and soul of the Orioles, and is the main reason that they are contending this year. Without him, the O's are a very mediocre team.
Rodriguez started the season at a torrid pace, hitting home runs left and right, including a phenomenal 3 HR, 10 RBI game. However, he's cooled off, as his totals are only 23 home runs and 71 RBIs (this is much, much lower than what he was on pace for at mid-June). He's got a respectable average, with .317.
David Ortiz continues to crush the ball. He stats so far are .314, 21 HRs, and 75 RBIs. He has hit plenty of walk off shots, but the big knock against him is that he doesn't play defense - he's pretty much a full time DH.
Personally, I think that whichever team wins the AL East will have their player win MVP. If Baltimore wins the division, expect Tejada to win MVP; same for Ortiz and Rodriguez. However, Rodriguez is a media darling, so he may (undeservedly) win the award even if he finishes with worse numbers and the Yankees finish in third place.
Final Predicitions: Tejada will have the best stats, Ortiz and the BoSox will be in first place, but Rodriguez will win the award.
posted by Mr. Crash at
10:14 PM
1 Comments:
Yeah, Lee aint gonna win the TC.
I gots to go with philly for the nl east because they so talented and all.
al east i dunno cause ya never know about the yankees and shit.
white sox and cards win the central pads and angels win the west. a's gunna go on one o they patented runs tho and they will give anaheim (la sucks moreno) a good run for their dough.
and stuff
-Slash Bandicoot
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Anonymous, At
6:44 PM
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