Thoughts on the NL Pennant Chase
The Dodgers have the best record in the NL, but I don't expect them to win the pennant. Their problem, in my eyes, is the lack of a true ace: Their starting staff is very consistent, but they don't have any pitcher that can match up against the best in baseball. They just have a bunch of #3's. Clayton Kershaw leads the team with a 2.96 ERA, but that's driven in part by his unsustainable 6.4 hits allowed per 9 innings. He also walks more as many batters as any other pitcher in the majors, right now ranking second in the NL with 80 totals walks issued. That's not something that you can do against elite lineups and get away with.
That said, the Dodgers are still the most complete team in the NL. There's been a lot of talk about them 'collapsing' but they still should easily win the division. They play great defense up the middle, they have big hitters, they have a reliable starting staff and a deep, deep bullpen. They could easily lead the league in wins - I just don't expect them to win the pennant.
The Cardinals are scary good. Wainwright and Carpenter are every bit as dominating as Cain and Lincecum, but unlike the Giants, the Cards actually have a great lineup. St. Louis has a deep bench, with Rick Ankiel and Julio Lugo providing good-enough-to-start platoon players. With Smoltz added, their starting rotation is shored up, and when the playoffs roll around they should have a very deep bullpen. Pujols-Holliday is an incredible 3-4, and Yadier Molina is probably having a career year. Overall they're as good as any team in baseball.
The Phillies are as frightening as ever. Their lineup is the best in the NL: they lead in runs, home runs, and slugging percentage. They play amazing defense; their team defense is probably better than any of the other contenders. In Cliff Lee they have an elite ace. Their bullpen has a lot of guys that can pitch. My reservations about Philadelphia mostly center on a few players:
1.) What is up with Jimmy Rollins' bat? He is absorbing so many ABs and is just not hitting. What happens to him during the stretch run, or in the playoffs? Is there a chance he'll start batting eighth?
2.) Is Brad Lidge going to remain the team's closer? At what point do you pull the plug on him? He's not as terrible as his numbers, but he really hasn't been any good, either. Is he going to be given the ball in the ninth inning of playoff games?
When we remember this period in baseball history, this may be the point in which we talk about "that Phillies dynasty." They've followed the track perfectly: They developed talent from within, formed a great core of young players, shored them up with free agents, won divisions, won a pennant and World Series, and now they've sold off their young guys for proven Major League talent. They could very well be on their way to the second of three consecutive NL pennants.
In the Colorado-San Fransisco wildcard chase, I've picked the Giants, even though the Rockies are four-and-a-half games up as I write this. I just think that San Fransisco's aces will be able to carry them to the postseason. Additionally, Colorado has just been playing INSANE baseball. They're 50-25 since firing Clint Hurdle! Surely they can't keep playing .666 ball the remainder of the year. Surely they're due for a fall back to Earth.
If the Giants do reach the playoffs, the can beat anyone in baseball. Can you imagine facing San Fransisco in a short series and getting matched up against Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum, Cain? That's insane.
If I had to pick, I'd put the Dodgers, Cardinals, Giants, and Phillies in the playoffs, with the Cardinals compiling the most wins. That would match up St. Louis with San Fransisco (I'd pick the Cardinals to win a series in which each team score maybe 10 runs each across 5 games) and the Dodgers with the Phillies - and I'd take the Phillies. If I had to pick between the Phillies and the Cardinals, I'd have to take the Cards based on their starting pitching...but ask me again when the playoffs roll around.
That said, the Dodgers are still the most complete team in the NL. There's been a lot of talk about them 'collapsing' but they still should easily win the division. They play great defense up the middle, they have big hitters, they have a reliable starting staff and a deep, deep bullpen. They could easily lead the league in wins - I just don't expect them to win the pennant.
The Cardinals are scary good. Wainwright and Carpenter are every bit as dominating as Cain and Lincecum, but unlike the Giants, the Cards actually have a great lineup. St. Louis has a deep bench, with Rick Ankiel and Julio Lugo providing good-enough-to-start platoon players. With Smoltz added, their starting rotation is shored up, and when the playoffs roll around they should have a very deep bullpen. Pujols-Holliday is an incredible 3-4, and Yadier Molina is probably having a career year. Overall they're as good as any team in baseball.
The Phillies are as frightening as ever. Their lineup is the best in the NL: they lead in runs, home runs, and slugging percentage. They play amazing defense; their team defense is probably better than any of the other contenders. In Cliff Lee they have an elite ace. Their bullpen has a lot of guys that can pitch. My reservations about Philadelphia mostly center on a few players:
1.) What is up with Jimmy Rollins' bat? He is absorbing so many ABs and is just not hitting. What happens to him during the stretch run, or in the playoffs? Is there a chance he'll start batting eighth?
2.) Is Brad Lidge going to remain the team's closer? At what point do you pull the plug on him? He's not as terrible as his numbers, but he really hasn't been any good, either. Is he going to be given the ball in the ninth inning of playoff games?
When we remember this period in baseball history, this may be the point in which we talk about "that Phillies dynasty." They've followed the track perfectly: They developed talent from within, formed a great core of young players, shored them up with free agents, won divisions, won a pennant and World Series, and now they've sold off their young guys for proven Major League talent. They could very well be on their way to the second of three consecutive NL pennants.
In the Colorado-San Fransisco wildcard chase, I've picked the Giants, even though the Rockies are four-and-a-half games up as I write this. I just think that San Fransisco's aces will be able to carry them to the postseason. Additionally, Colorado has just been playing INSANE baseball. They're 50-25 since firing Clint Hurdle! Surely they can't keep playing .666 ball the remainder of the year. Surely they're due for a fall back to Earth.
If the Giants do reach the playoffs, the can beat anyone in baseball. Can you imagine facing San Fransisco in a short series and getting matched up against Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum, Cain? That's insane.
If I had to pick, I'd put the Dodgers, Cardinals, Giants, and Phillies in the playoffs, with the Cardinals compiling the most wins. That would match up St. Louis with San Fransisco (I'd pick the Cardinals to win a series in which each team score maybe 10 runs each across 5 games) and the Dodgers with the Phillies - and I'd take the Phillies. If I had to pick between the Phillies and the Cardinals, I'd have to take the Cards based on their starting pitching...but ask me again when the playoffs roll around.
posted by Mr. Crash at
10:52 PM
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