The MVP and Cy Young of the AL

The Cy Young and MVP races are pretty tight in the AL this year. Before I jump into the fray and pick my guys, I want to set out my criteria for MVP and Cy Young:

1.) The MVP cannot be a pitcher. That's what the Cy Young is for. Pitchers just don't play enough to be considered for the MVP award, especially in these modern times: While I do not begrudge Bob Gibson's MVP in 1968, the conditions in baseball have changed so much that no one is going to throw 28 complete games with 13 shutouts, or top 300 innings and post a 1.12 ERA. The MVP must be separate from the Cy Young.

2.) More than stats determine the MVP. I will not give the MVP to a player on a last place team, period. I don't care what his stats were, I don't think Alex Rodriguez deserved the MVP in 2003. On the flip side, I think the Cy Young should go to the pitcher with the best pure numbers, regardless of how well their team is doing.

3.) The position of an MVP candidate matters. A catcher who hits 30 home runs is more valuable than a first baseman who hits 40. A RF who hits 40 home runs is more valuable than a DH who does the same. This is what VORP is all about. That said, VORP will not be the be-all-end-all statistic; I will consider pure numbers, not just "most valuable per position".

I'm going to be throwing around some odd stats, so here are their definitions:

• VORP: Value Above Replacement Player. A replacement player is definied as someone with the minimum threshold of talent necessary to be a professional MLB player. VORP is an all-in-one offensive statistic designed to figure out how many more runs a given player is worth compared to a replacement level player at the same position (very important). If a player has a VORP of 10, he is worth ten more runs than a replacement level player; on average, ten VORP runs equal one win for a team, so a player with a VORP of ten is worth one more win to his team than a replacement player. VORP allows for easy comparisons of players at different positions. VORP is a counting stat, much like home runs or RBIs, meaning the best players will see their totals steadily rise as the season progresses. VORP does not account for defense.
• EqA: Equivalent Average. A summation of a player's total offensive output (including steals), adjusted for league, era, and even ballpark, calibrated into a format similar to batting average. A .260 EqA is completely average; .300 is very good; .350 is Hall of Fame-level.
• FRAR: Fielding Runs Above Replacement. Much like VORP, only for defense. How many runs does a given player save with his defense compared to a replacement level player?
• FRAA: Fielding Runs Above Average. Same as FRAR, only the player's defense is compared to the average major leaguer at the same position, not merely someone good enough to just make the majors.

Let's start with the major statistics:

Top 10 AL Leaders in OBP

David Ortiz - .439
Magglio Ordonez - .437
Gary Sheffield - .418
Vladimir Guerrero - .414
Kevin Youkilis - .414
Reggie Willits - .412
Jorge Posada - .407
Alex Rodriguez - .407
Brian Roberts - .406
Derek Jeter - .404

Top 10 AL Leaders in Slugging

Alex Rodriguez - .658
Carlos Pena - .617
Magglio Ordonez - .586
Justin Morneau - .571
David Ortiz - .569
Gary Sheffield - .564
Carlos Guillen - .563
Curtis Granderson - .563
Torri Hunter - .551
Victor Martinez - .549

Two things immediately jump out at me when I look at these lists: One, A-Rod's slugging is insane. Two: Magglio Ordonez is having a monster year, as he is second in OBP and third in slugging.

More important statistics:

Top 10 AL Leaders in VORP

Alex Rodriguez - 54.5
Magglio Ordonez - 48.9
David Ortiz - 42.0
Gary Sheffield - 41.1
Ichiro Suzuki - 41.1
Vladimir Guerrero - 40.2
Victor Martinez - 39.1
Jorge Posada - 38.5
Grady Sizemore - 37.1
Brian Roberts - 36.2

Top 10 AL Leaders in EqA:

Alex Rodriguez - .338
Magglio Ordonez - .337
Carlos Pena - .332
David Ortiz - .327
Gary Sheffield - .322
Vladimir Guerrero - .321
Jorge Posada - .311
Carlos Guillen - .308
Victor Martinez - .307
Justin Morneau - .305

I excluded Jim Thome and Mark Teixiera from the EqA list due to lack of plate appearances. The more I stats I look at, the more clear it becomes that Alex Rodriguez and Magglio Ordonez are the cream of the crop. Ichiro Suzuki is worthy of MVP considerations, but is not in the same class as the former two; and while Sheffield is having a great year, he is pretty much a full-time DH, meaning his statistics would have to be far and away the best for me to consider him.

Breaking Down Rodriguez and Ordonez

Rodriguez leads Ordonez in three of the four categories I looked at: slugging, VORP, and EqA. Ordonez, however, has a significant lead in OBP, and in fact Rodriguez's leads in VORP and EqA are negligible. I want to look at more stats to find out how they match-up. First up: Enhanced OPS.

Magglio's Enhanced OPS:
(191 + 1)/324 = .592 Expanded Slugging
(116 + 46 + 2 - 1)/375 = .435 True OBP x 3 = 1.304 Weighted OBP
.592 + 1.304 = 1.896 Enhanced OPS

A-Rod's Enhanced OPS:
(217 + 7)/330 = .678 Expanded Slugging
(103 + 49 + 9 - 2)/393 = .404 True OBP x 3 = 1.213 Weighted OBP
.678 + 1.213 = 1.891 Enhanced OPS

Well that's incredibly close. A-Rod has a .001 edge in EqA, Magglio has a .005 edge in Enhanced OPS.

How does each player's defense impact his team?

Statistic: A-Rod's stat/Magglio's stat
FRAR: 12/3
FRAA: 4/-3

Now we begin to see a significant difference. Alex Rodriguez's defense is magrinally above average, while Ordonez's defense is maginally below average.

Final Prediction: Ordonez is playing WAY over his head. His career batting average is .309 and he's never had an OBP of .400 or better, while he is hitting .358 with an OBP of .437 this year. His batting average on balls in play (i.e. non-home run hits) is an astounding .386. He is due for a serious slump any day now. As his batting average falls, so will his OBP, and thus any sort of edge he has on Rodriguez. Rodriguez, on the other hand, isn't doing anything superhuman (by his standards): his current .407 OBP would only be the fourth-best of his career, and he even posted an EqA of .350 in 2005 (which led the majors). He's twice topped 50 home runs, so his gaudy home run total so far is not necessarily unexpected. If the season were to end today, Magglio Ordonez would win the MVP because he and A-Rod essentially have identical stats, but the Tigers are so much better than the Yankees and players on better teams overwhelming tend to win the MVP. That said, expect Ordonez's numbers to drop off soon and for A-Rod to win the award at the end of the season.

The AL Cy Young Award

Unlike the MVP, there are more straightforward statistics to consider here.

Top 5 AL Leaders in ERA

Dan Haren - 2.30
Johan Santana - 2.60
Mark Buehrle - 2.98
John Lackey - 2.98
Kelvim Escobar - 3.04

Top 5 AL Leaders in WHIP

Jeremy Guthrie - 0.99
Johan Santana - 1.02
Dan Haren - 1.03
James Shields - 1.05
Mark Buehrle - 1.08

Dan Haren, Johan Santana, and Mark Buehrle are the frontrunners for the Cy Young. Here are some other important statistics to consider:

Statistic: Haren's stat/Johan's stat/Buehrle's stat
K/9 innings: 7.02/9.35/5.16
K/BB: 3.15/4.29/3.08
Innings per HR: 11.75/7.52/8.24

Buehrle is obviously the least of the three, trailing Santana and Haren in every category other than innings per HR. As for the other two, they trade stats: Haren has a better ERA and HR rate, but Santana strikes out a significantly greater number of batters, has a better K/BB rate, and has a better WHIP.

Final Prediction: This is much like the MVP vote. While, if the season ended today, Haren would win the Cy Young, look for Johan Santana to win it...again. History has shown that Santana only gets better and better as the season progresses, and Haren's ERA and WHIP ought to rise, considering that he doesn't strike out a lot of batters and doesn't have Santana's track record. If Johan Santana pitches true to form, he will win the 2007 AL Cy Young.