The MVP and CY Young of the NL

And now for something completely different. Let's get right to it. First, the MVP:

Top 10 Leaders in NL OBP

Barry Bonds - .497
Todd Helton - .440
Chipper Jones - .424
Derrek Lee - .420
Albert Pujols - .412
Chase Utley - .405
Miguel Cabrera - .398
Aaron Rowand - .396
Brad Hawpe - .392
Mark Loretta - .392

Top 10 Leaders in NL Slugging

Prince Fielder - .616
Miguel Cabrera - .598
Chipper Jones - .596
Chase Utley - .583
Hunter Pence - .575
Matt Holliday -.574
Ryan Howard - .563
Barry Bonds - .557
Ken Griffey Jr. - .556
Chris Duncan - .555

Not as much jumps out at me: The numbers are closer together (the difference between the best slugger and the tenth best slugger is 61 points, while the difference between the best AL slugger and the second best is 48 points) and some of the guys on the leader boards don't have much of a chance: despite leading the NL in OPS, Barry Bonds has built up so much ill-will and plays (relatively speaking) so few games that is seems almost impossible he'll win MVP. The same goes for guys like Todd Helton and Matt Holliday; Helton is an obscene .329/.476/.507 at home but only .297/.407/.436 on the road (still great numbers, but not MVP-caliber), while Holliday's number are an average .299/.355/.478 on the road. The three players who stand out to me are Chipper Jones, Chase Utley, and Miguel Cabrera, who are each mashing and getting on base.

Top 10 NL Leaders in VORP

Chase Utley - 47.2
Hanely Ramirez - 46.4
Miguel Cabrera - 44.5
Chipper Jones - 39.6
Barry Bonds - 38.5
Jose Reyes - 38.2
Matt Holliday - 36.9
Russell Martin - 36.8
Edgar Renteria - 35.8
Prince Fielder - 35.2

Top 10 NL Leaders in EqA

Barry Bonds - .365
Chipper Jones - .344
Miguel Cabrera - .333
Albert Pujols - .326
Chase Utley - .326
Chris Duncan - .318
Prince Fielder - .318
Hanley Ramirez - .316
Todd Helton - .312
Ken Griffey Jr. - .311

...okay, look, I know Bonds is having another appallingly great season. I recognize that, if I had my choice of any one active player to come to bat with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth, there is no one I'd rather take. But dammit! There is no way Bonds will win MVP. People just won't vote for him. Trust me. I think it is also worth pointing out that Bonds does not match up with the best when it comes to counting statistics, in part due to his limited playing time: for instance, he is not even in the top 10 in the NL for Runs Created, despite having the best OBP and EqA.

Excluding Bonds, I am left with Chipper Jones, Chase Utley, and Miguel Cabrera as the top contenders for MVP. However, it would be utterly hypocritical of me to exclude Bonds for only playing in 81 games...and then include Chipper Jones, who has only played in 68. Despite his monster stats, Jones will not be my pick for MVP.

Breaking Down Utley and Cabrera

Utley leads Cabrera in OBP and VORP, while Cabrera leads Utley in slugging and EqA. First, I want to take into consideration the players' base-stealing abilitiy.

Chase Utley's Enhanced OPS:

(210 + 5)/360 = .597 Expanded Slugging
(120 + 32 + 15 - 1)/413 = .402 True OBP x 3 = 1.205 Weighted OBP
.597 + 1.205 = 1.802 Enhanced OPS

Miguel Cabrera's Enhanced OPS:
(198 + -1)/331 = .595 Expanded Slugging
(108 + 40 + 2 - 1)/378 = .394 True OBP x 3 = 1.182 Weighted OBP
.595 + 1.182 = 1.777 Enhanced OPS

Chase Utley's stealing skills negate Cabrera's slight edge in slugging. But what about defense? Cabrera plays 3B, while Utley plays 2B; conventional wisdom suggests that Utley, due to the nature of his position, likely saves more runs with his glove than Cabrera. What do the stats say?

Statistic: Cabrera's stat/Utley's stat

FRAR: 7/16

FRAA: -1/1

The stats agree with conventional wisdom. Utley not only saves more runs with his glove, but is actually a slightly above average defensive 2B, while Cabrera is a slightly below average defensive 3B.

Final Prediction: If the season ended right now, Utley would win MVP. I also expect him to keep up his numbers and win it at the end of the season. Unlike Magglio Ordonez, Utley is not playing completely over his head: while he is indeed posting career high numbers in every category, he is only 28 years old, and his numbers are not unreasonably better than years passed. For instance, his BABIP is .374 this year...but it was .349 last year. Not an unbelievable jump. Utley's superior numbers at a tougher defensive position will likely net him the MVP at the end of the year. That said, look out for Chipper Jones, who is tearing the cover off the ball and plays on a better, more highly-visible and popular team than either Utley or Cabrera.

The NL Cy Young

Top 5 in NL ERA

Chris Young - 1.97
Jake Peavy - 2.19
Brad Penny - 2.39
John Maine - 2.91
Derek Lowe - 3.05

Top 5 in NL WHIP

Chris Young - 1.02
Jake Peavy - 1.06
Ted Lilly - 1.06
Rich Hill - 1.14
Ben Sheets - 1.16

It's a two-horse race, with the top pitchers of San Diego going head to head. John Maine is a distant third, with the fourth best ERA and sixth best WHIP. I excluded Florida's Sergio Mitre from the ERA list because he hasn't thrown 100 innings yet. Here are the other major statistics to consider:

Statistic: Peavy's stat/Young's stat

K/9 innings: 9.45/8.78

K/BB: 3.68/2.97

Innings per HR: 39.6/27.4

Peavy tops Young in every category.

Final Prediction: I think that Peavy would win the Cy Young if the race ended today, and will win it at the end of the year. Chris Young seems to be playing well over his head: he has never even sniffed a sub-3.00 ERA until this year, while Peavy won the ERA crown in 2004 with a 2.27 ERA, and also posted an ERA of 2.88 in 2005. With his track record and far better strikeout rate, look for Jake Peavy to win the NL Cy Young.

Side note: All the statistics I used during these last two posts are courtesy of MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Reference, and the Hardball Times. All of these sites are linked to over there, on the right, and I encourage every baseball fan out there to check them out. They're great websites and invaluable statistical treasure troves.