Ugh. Season over.

All the really interesting stuff with the O's is finished, as all of the young guys (even Reimold) have been shut down. There are a handful of meaningless games left and then...sweet oblivion.

The only real storyline left is whether or not the O's win 63 games, AKA do they avoid 100 losses. Honestly, that's basically it. With all their rookies finished for the year, there are way too many AAA-lifers on the roster for me to really care about the remaining games. I know a lot of people would say that doesn't make me a "true fan" - but honestly, what do they expect? I don't owe the Orioles anything, and right now they aren't putting a team on the field that I want to watch.

I'll do a longer offseason post later, even though the Orioles will probably be very quiet in the market. The team needs a big slugger at either DH, 1B, or possibly 3B, and there is no free agent this year that fits the bill. Additionally, Andy MacPhail has said that he isn't going to trade a lot of prospects for a big name hitter, so all the fans out there who support the idea of trading Tillman+Reimold+Britton (or whatever insane package) for Adrian Gonzalez won't get their wish. Keep an eye on Justin Turner, as he may end up the Orioles everyday 3B next year.

The only races left are the AL Central race and the NL Wild Card. I'm rooting for the Tigers and Giants to pull it out, as both have superior pitching staffs (staves?) and will likely be better teams in the playoffs than the Twins or Rockies (who are about to have the quietest 90-win season ever).

I'll do a post on the MVP, Cy Young, and other awards once the season officially ends.

Another season, another tough summer.

Everyone likes pie!

I'd been meaning to do a blog post on Felix Pie for a while, but I always put it off because the moment never seemed right. Now, though, I think is the proper time.

Adam Jones has severely sprained his ankle and will be out for two or three weeks - and is likely done for the season. This comes on the heels of the announcement that Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman will be shut down soon due to their innings limits as young pitchers. Prepare for a brutal September as this trio is replaced by Chris Waters, David Pauley...

...and Felix Pie.

Pie's season has been incredibly up and down. Though he wasn't the Opening Day left fielder, he essentially took over the role quickly, and through May he had twenty-five starts in the Orioles first thirty-six games. Unfortunately for him, he wasn't hitting at all - in his first thirty six games, he batted only .195 with two home runs and an incredible four RBI (how is that even possible?). Across June and July he accrued just seven starts and saw only limited action as a pinch hitter, pinch runner, and defensive replacement.

Unknown to most people, Orioles' hitting coach Terry Crowley was completely taking apart Pie's swing and putting it back together again. If you compare games from April and August, the difference in Pie's swing is huge - he's much more crouched now, his bat held higher. He uses a leg-kick as a timing mechanism that (if you'll excuse me) greatly resembles Sadaharu Oh.

The results have been obvious. Besides the night he memorably hit for the cycle against the Angels, he has batted .382 with 6 home runs and 13 RBI over his last 18 games. He's .329/.383/.612 since the All-Star Break.

So what does this all mean? With Jones out Pie will have ample chances to prove how himself over the next few weeks. There has been heavy criticism levied at Pie for his constant mental errors. He remains the only player Trembley has called out all year. Pie can prove to the skeptics that he can actually hit, field, and run like the superstar he was claimed to be all those years ago.

Adam Jones's stats had been plummeting across the board prior to his injury, and right now Pie actually has a higher OPS. That said, there is no chance Pie usurps center; not only is Jones younger, but his improvement has been so rapid. Jones could be an elite player next year, and the team isn't going to mess with the guy who, along with Wieters, will likely become the face of the franchise over the next several years. Pie's real future lies in left field.

It's no secret that Reimold has been banged up on-and-off during the season. Though his arm is good, Nolan doesn't run particularly well, and Trembley has spoken (repeatedly) about working with Reimold to help him have more confidence when coming in on balls. Considering his injuries and the fact that Pie is without a doubt a superior defender, and there's an excellent chance that Pie is the Opening Day left fielder next year with Reimold at DH. I think the most likely situation is the two platooning left, with Pie sitting against lefties and Reimold starting at DH against right-handed pitching.

I always felt that the Cubs gave up much too quickly on Pie. He had only a few hundred at bats across two seasons, and those were when he was 22 and 23 - you can't look at sporadic playing time over those ages and call the results conclusive. The team (and the Cubs' fanbase) turned on him incredibly rapidly, considering how much talent he had demonstrated as a teenager. Andy MacPhail got Pie for Garrett Olsen, who has nearly a 6 ERA and is back in the minors. There is a real chance that Olsen-for-Felix-Pie could be a swindle on par with the Erik Bedard trade.

Scott Kazmir to the Angels

Scott Kazmir has been traded to the Angels for minor league players Alexander Torres and Matthew Sweeney. Both Torres and Sweeney are mid-level prospects, both 21, both playing great in high-A ball but both clearly a few seasons away from the big leagues.

I'm personally shocked at how quickly Kazmir went from #1 ace to being dealt for what is a decent but unspectacular package. Scott Kazmir, for those who have forgotten, had full-season ERAs of 3.24, 3.48, and 3.49 between 2006 and 2008, all while playing in the toughest division in the majors. He was only 25. Why the fall from grace?

The most puzzling aspect about Kazmir's tumble is that not one team claimed him off waivers. Not in the AL, not the NL. The Giants have been putting claims in on every warm body they could (Sheffield, Hoffman, Heilman, Harden...) and even they passed on Kazmir. This trade to the Angels took place after Kazmir cleared waivers. What gives?

It's probably not that complicated. For one, Kazmir had serious injury issues. He's been placed on the DL twice this season and missed significant amount of time last year. He's only thrown 200 innings in a season once, back in 2007. Pitchers with injury concerns rightly scare most teams, no matter how talented the arm is when healthy.

Secondly, Kazmir did not have a bite-sized contract. Kazmir and the Rays agreed to a three-year contract extension in 2008 that saw Kazmir guaranteed $28.5 million through the end of 2011, and with incentives could reach just under $40 million. He's owed $8 million in 2010 and $12 million in '11. For a lot of teams, the price tag alone is enough to ward off potential trades, never mind that the money is owed a pitcher with major injury concerns. There are plenty of non-contending teams (like our very own Orioles) that would have loved to traded for Kazmir...prior to his contract extension and all that guaranteed money.

But what about contending teams? Surely they're not scared of spending to win? Sure, but teams want to win now. Even with his injury concerns, Kazmir still has a bright future ahead of him. Plenty of teams would be glad to trade for him...in the offseason. But right now, during the pennant races, when the Rays would be able to demand more in the way of prospects? When Kazmir has a 5.92 ERA and his strikeout rate is the lowest of his career? Couple together his current performance, his contract, and his injuries, and it doesn't surprise me that a LHP with 45 wins by the age of 24 saw only one team interested in trading for him.

AL MVP

While we're on the subject of predictions, I just want to throw my hat into Joe Mauer's corner in the race for American League Most Valuable Player.

The Orioles just finished a series with the Twins, and it was a treat getting to see Mauer play. I never realized just how huge he is, how big his shoulders are. Along with guys like Brian McCann and the newly arrived Matt Wieters, Mauer seems to be spearheading a trend away from squat, slow catchers and towards sheer athleticism and size. Mauer and Wieters are both around six-and-a-half feet tall, with huge shoulders and little to no fat on them. During the mid-90's, shortstops went through a revolution as teams started playing bigger, stronger players at the position; instead of guys like Ozzie Smith or Luis Aparicio, players such as Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, and especially Alex Rodriguez were playing short and showing that you didn't necessarily need a tiny guy who could do backflips to man the position. Similarly, I think catchers are going to start looking more and more like running backs as time goes by.

Mauer lived up to his hype as "the best" during the series. He was a great receiver behind the plate and moved extremely well on a few balls in the dirt. The Orioles ran on him a little bit and he made a series of effortless, on-the-mark throws. He also picked up three hits and saw his batting average sit at .373 when the series ended.

A .373 batting average would be the highest ever by a catcher since 1900. Even if his average dips, it is extremely likely that he'll win his third batting title, making him the first catcher ever to win three.

Over the last few years, as he put up historic season after historic season, I've asked myself several times "Is Albert Pujols the best first baseman ever?" And after researching it, I'd say no: It's unlikely that Pujols will eclipse Jimmie Foxx and Lou Gehrig. It's possible, but Pujols has established the level he plays at; he isn't suddenly going to reel off a season (or two) that is well above what we expect, even for a superstar like him, that will suddenly close the gap and see him overtake Gehrig as "The Best Ever".

Since 2006, when he and Jeter were locked in an amazingly close MVP race (ultimately won by Justin Morneau, who was maybe one of the fifteen best players in the AL that year), I've followed Mauer more closely than I do most players. After 2008, I remember thinking "He could be one of the best catchers ever!" But it was only now, during this series, contemplating his impending third batting title, that I finally said to myself: Joe Mauer might be the best catcher ever. It was an amazing thought. I don't really know why it never crossed my mind before now. Joe Mauer might be the best catcher ever! No hedging it, no "best player since", no explaining away "different eras": Total package, no apologies, the best ever to play catcher. That's a thrilling notion.

I watched the three games of the O's/Twins series with a friend who isn't nearly as into baseball as I am. I was talking about Mauer and mentioned that he was a local sports icon, having grown up in Minnesota and been a superstar quarterback in high school. My friend was delighted that he'd given up quarterback to play catcher. "He's like a knight that gave it up to be a general." If that's not a great sports metaphor, I don't know what is.

Thoughts on the NL Pennant Chase

The Dodgers have the best record in the NL, but I don't expect them to win the pennant. Their problem, in my eyes, is the lack of a true ace: Their starting staff is very consistent, but they don't have any pitcher that can match up against the best in baseball. They just have a bunch of #3's. Clayton Kershaw leads the team with a 2.96 ERA, but that's driven in part by his unsustainable 6.4 hits allowed per 9 innings. He also walks more as many batters as any other pitcher in the majors, right now ranking second in the NL with 80 totals walks issued. That's not something that you can do against elite lineups and get away with.

That said, the Dodgers are still the most complete team in the NL. There's been a lot of talk about them 'collapsing' but they still should easily win the division. They play great defense up the middle, they have big hitters, they have a reliable starting staff and a deep, deep bullpen. They could easily lead the league in wins - I just don't expect them to win the pennant.

The Cardinals are scary good. Wainwright and Carpenter are every bit as dominating as Cain and Lincecum, but unlike the Giants, the Cards actually have a great lineup. St. Louis has a deep bench, with Rick Ankiel and Julio Lugo providing good-enough-to-start platoon players. With Smoltz added, their starting rotation is shored up, and when the playoffs roll around they should have a very deep bullpen. Pujols-Holliday is an incredible 3-4, and Yadier Molina is probably having a career year. Overall they're as good as any team in baseball.

The Phillies are as frightening as ever. Their lineup is the best in the NL: they lead in runs, home runs, and slugging percentage. They play amazing defense; their team defense is probably better than any of the other contenders. In Cliff Lee they have an elite ace. Their bullpen has a lot of guys that can pitch. My reservations about Philadelphia mostly center on a few players:

1.) What is up with Jimmy Rollins' bat? He is absorbing so many ABs and is just not hitting. What happens to him during the stretch run, or in the playoffs? Is there a chance he'll start batting eighth?
2.) Is Brad Lidge going to remain the team's closer? At what point do you pull the plug on him? He's not as terrible as his numbers, but he really hasn't been any good, either. Is he going to be given the ball in the ninth inning of playoff games?

When we remember this period in baseball history, this may be the point in which we talk about "that Phillies dynasty." They've followed the track perfectly: They developed talent from within, formed a great core of young players, shored them up with free agents, won divisions, won a pennant and World Series, and now they've sold off their young guys for proven Major League talent. They could very well be on their way to the second of three consecutive NL pennants.

In the Colorado-San Fransisco wildcard chase, I've picked the Giants, even though the Rockies are four-and-a-half games up as I write this. I just think that San Fransisco's aces will be able to carry them to the postseason. Additionally, Colorado has just been playing INSANE baseball. They're 50-25 since firing Clint Hurdle! Surely they can't keep playing .666 ball the remainder of the year. Surely they're due for a fall back to Earth.

If the Giants do reach the playoffs, the can beat anyone in baseball. Can you imagine facing San Fransisco in a short series and getting matched up against Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Lincecum, Cain? That's insane.

If I had to pick, I'd put the Dodgers, Cardinals, Giants, and Phillies in the playoffs, with the Cardinals compiling the most wins. That would match up St. Louis with San Fransisco (I'd pick the Cardinals to win a series in which each team score maybe 10 runs each across 5 games) and the Dodgers with the Phillies - and I'd take the Phillies. If I had to pick between the Phillies and the Cardinals, I'd have to take the Cards based on their starting pitching...but ask me again when the playoffs roll around.

Quick Hits, Sunday 8/23

-Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold each had home runs as the Orioles won their first series since the All-Star Break. It's encouraging to see the young guys hit. Has there been a bigger surprise rookie in the AL than Nolan Reimold? He's come out of nowhere to become an everyday LF/DH. Felix Pie has made the most of his limited playing time, and should continue to earn starts and ABs. I hope the Orioles can avoid another August collapse.

-John Smoltz made his Cardinal debut, throwing five innings of shutout ball and striking out nine, including a St. Louis-record seven in a row. I don't want to say "I told you so", but...

-Eric Bruntlett's game-ending unassisted triple play was at least the third time this year I've said "What a perfect metaphor for the 2009 Mets." I'm not sure which is more fitting, the triple play or Vinny Castilla shanking a flyball to let the Yankees win in the bottom of the ninth.

-Derek Jeter is quietly having not only one of the best seasons of his career, but the best of any leadoff man in baseball right now. He's .331/.394/.471 on the season with 21 steals; both BP and Fangraphs see him as above-average defensively on the year.

Derek Jeter was so overrated for a while that he's almost underrated. Stat guys got so caught up in pointing out how overrated his defense is and how much the media fawns over him, but they seem to have lost sight of the fact that he's also a Hall of Fame shortstop for a reason.

-I'm no buff when it comes to the minor leagues, and so I was asking around about who the frontrunners for Minor League Player of the Year are; apparently Brian Matusz is the favorite. It would be amazing if the Orioles had two players win the award in back to back seasons. The track record for MiLPOY's is extremely good, with a high percentage of HOFers and perennial All-Stars.

-Speaking of Minor League Orioles, Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun speculates that Justin Turner, the everyday 2B for the AAA-affiliate Norfolk Tides, will be called up soon. I think Turner is one guy who's been hugely flying under the radar. He doesn't have much pop in his bat, but he's a 24-year-old second baseman batting .314 at AAA - that's nothing to sneeze at.

Over the last six games at Norfolk, Turner has gotten five starts at third base, suggesting he'll split time with Mora over the remainder of the year. I don't know if he's in the mix to be our Opening Day third baseman next year, but his callup is exciting. I see no reason he couldn't get about twenty starts across 3B, 2B, 1B or DH over the rest of the year, and maybe compete for a spot in Spring Training. I see him as a Blake DeWitt type, a guy who plays good D and OPS's around .750

Quick Hits

-John Smoltz signed on with the Cardinals to be their fifth starter. I like the move, as 1.) While St. Louis has an amazing 1-2 combo in Wainwright and Carpenter, their starting depth after that is very weak. 2.) When the playoffs roll around, he'll be moved to the bullpen and could be quite effective from there. I still feel like the Cardinals bullpen is a total house of cards, because Franklin is clearly playing way over his head. 3.) Smoltz isn't as bad as his ERA indicates. He still strikes out a lot of people and doesn't walk anyone. His peripherals are/were good, he just got a little unlucky before he had his legitimately awful start against the Yankees. I believe he still has gas in the tank. 4.) Smoltz is desperate for a job. It's a win-win, and a great fit.

-Stephen Strasburg signed with the Nationals for $15.6 million. A lot of people are balking at the number, but I think it’s great. At the end of the day, you have Strasburg and everyone else doesn’t. Some have said they shouldn’t have gone higher than $12 million, but are you really going to let a 21-year-old with his track record, with his polish and incredible stuff slip through your fingers over a few million? Hank Greenberg, when he was GM of the Indians back in the 60’s, had Luis Aparicio ready to sign—and then tried to chisel a few thousand dollars out of the shortstop and saw Aparicio go to the White Sox. Hey, how’d that one work out, Greeny? If you’re serious about winning you sign your #1 picks. I’m glad Washington got it done (even though, had Strasburg reentered the draft, Baltimore would have had a real shot at him), because it’s bad for baseball when you have lame duck franchises, teams with no fanbase, no money, and which seem to have no commitment to winning. I hope Strasburg helps turn the Nats around.