Questions Heading Into the Second Half

As the All-Star break closes, there are certain questions that we must ponder...

1.) Who will win the Eastern divisions?

In the NL, the Washington Nationals have a two-and-a-half game lead on the Braves. The Nats have been winning with pitching, ranking fourth in the NL in team ERA. They have strength in the starting staff, with aces like John Patterson (2.91 ERA) and Livan Hernandez (12-3 record), as well as in the bullpen, with the unhittable Chad Cordero (31 saves, 1.13 ERA) closing out games. However, their offense is arguably the worst in baseball, as they are dead last in runs scored (357 so far).

On the other hand, there is Atlanta Braves. The Braves, who of course have won 13 straight division titles, are coming on strong. They are third in the NL in runs scored, as well as second in the NL in ERA. Despite early bullpen troubles (see: Danny Kolb), they seem to have everything patched up. It remains to be seen if the Nationals can hold them off.

Meanwhile, in the AL, everything has gotten cluttered. The Red Sox are in first place, with the Orioles two games back and the Yankees two-and-a-half games back. This past week has allowed the Orioles and Yankees to draw close; while the Orioles fumbled terribly, going 5-12 in their last 17 games before the break, the Red Sox weren't able to pull away, going only 4-6 in their last ten games. The Yankees have gotten hot (7-3 in their last ten) and are just waiting to pounce on the Sox, should the Boys from Beantown stumble.

The Orioles need to make moves if they want to contend. After leading a charmed existence in April and May, injuries hurt them in June. Regardless, they cannot expect to contend with their current pitching staff. They need to trade for another pitcher (Jason Schmidt?) and find out what the the hell is wrong with Sammy Sosa - perhaps even by benching the aging slugger.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, need to play to their potential. They've slumped as of late, and going 1-3 in a four game series against Baltimore was very poor, as they missed an opportunity to but the Birds away. Finding out how to use Schilling most effectively (either waiting longer to have him join the starting staff or allowing him to become a closer) will be a boost for them. They need to find a middle reliever to help their shoddy bullpen.

The Yankees, on the other hand, must play consistently. They'll go on a winning streak, then a losing streak, then a winning streak, then a losing streak. On top of that, they must beat divisional opponents. They are only 4-6 versus the Orioles, 4-5 versus the Red Sox, and an incredible 3-7 versus the Devil Rays. They, too, need middle relief help; letting Stanton walk and trading Quantrill for May and Redding was a good start, but they are still very weak in the bullpen. Also, even though he's in the midst of a dominant season, it remains to be seen if Mariano Rivera can close against the Red Sox.

Final Predictions: Atlanta Braves, Boston Red Sox

2.) Can anyone stop the St. Louis Cardinals?

The St. Louis Cardinals are playing like a force of nature. They lead the majors in team ERA, have an ace in Chris Carpenter, have a quality closer in Jason Isringhausen and have no real weakness, pitching-wise. After losing their shortstop, catcher, and second baseman during the off-season, the Cards went out and got David Eckstein (All-Star starter), Mark Grudzielanek (only a moderate player, but still an upgrade over Womack) and Yadier Molina (it is unclear if he is as good defensively as Matheny, but he's been better with the bat and is throwing out basestealers at a higher rate than anyone else). And, of course, the Red Birds have a killer lineup, leading the NL in runs scored. They are 11.5 games up on the second place Houston Astros.

Is this any different than last year? Will the Cardinals blow through the regular season only to falter in October? Or will they win the World Series?

I say that they can and will win the Series. Because they have an ace (Carpenter), they will be able to take on other teams more effectively. In addition, no one else seems up to stopping them.

Final prediction: Cardinals win the pennant and the Series

3.) Will Barry Bonds play this year?

After missing all of the year up to this point, word is that Bonds will try to return by mid-August.

To be totally honest, I don't expect Bonds to return...Ever. I think that there is little coincidence between the institution of a serious drug-testing policy and Bonds disappearing. I'm sure he has (or had) a legitimate injury, but I don't think he wants to risk getting caught. He knows that his name will be mud, now and forever, if he tests positive for steroids. He'll never be considered one of the best of all time, because people will say "Well, he did take steroids..." Bonds is nothing if not egotistical, and can't bear the thought of not being mentioned in "Best All-Time" conversations.

Final Prediction: We've seen the last days of Bonds.

4.) Can Derek Lee hit for the Triple Crown?

To be honest, I don't see why not. His batting average is .041 better than the second place man (Pujols), he's tied for the major league lead in home runs (27) and he's 4 RBI back of the NL Leader. Breaking it down by category...

Batting average: Lee could win this, but he could also bomb. Lee is a career .275 hitter and has never hit .300 before. However, he is just so far ahead of the second place guy that even a long cool streak might not be enough to derail him.

Home runs: Again, Lee seems to be a bit over his head, though this seems a little more natural for him. His career best in homers is 32, but he consistently hits in the high twenties and low thirties. Also, one of his main competitors (Andruw Jones) is a notoriously streaky hitter who's never hit 40 home runs before. I could definitely see Lee winning this category.

RBIs: This is probably the toughest category for Lee to win, mostly due to the Cubs lineup. Because he bats third in the order, he has fewer RBI opportunities than a player batting fourth, and the guys in front of him (Neifi Perez, Jerry Hairston, Jr., and others) aren't exactly the best leadoff men. Plus, he has to contend with RBI machine Carlos Lee.

Final predictions: Lee could win the batting title and will have the most home runs, but I don't see him winning the RBI crown.

5.) Who will win AL MVP?

There are only a few candidates who are MVP-worthy: Miguel Tejada, Alex Rodriguez, and David Ortiz. Unsurprisingly, each is a member of the AL East.

Tejada, coming off a stellar .311, 34 HR, 150 RBI season, isn't doing quite as well this year. He is still tearing the cover off the ball - .323 average, 114 hits, 19 homers - but but his RBI stats are way down, as he only has 61 (he had 75 at the All-Star break last year). He is the heart and soul of the Orioles, and is the main reason that they are contending this year. Without him, the O's are a very mediocre team.

Rodriguez started the season at a torrid pace, hitting home runs left and right, including a phenomenal 3 HR, 10 RBI game. However, he's cooled off, as his totals are only 23 home runs and 71 RBIs (this is much, much lower than what he was on pace for at mid-June). He's got a respectable average, with .317.

David Ortiz continues to crush the ball. He stats so far are .314, 21 HRs, and 75 RBIs. He has hit plenty of walk off shots, but the big knock against him is that he doesn't play defense - he's pretty much a full time DH.

Personally, I think that whichever team wins the AL East will have their player win MVP. If Baltimore wins the division, expect Tejada to win MVP; same for Ortiz and Rodriguez. However, Rodriguez is a media darling, so he may (undeservedly) win the award even if he finishes with worse numbers and the Yankees finish in third place.

Final Predicitions: Tejada will have the best stats, Ortiz and the BoSox will be in first place, but Rodriguez will win the award.

I Hate All-Star Managers

Chris Carpenter is going to start the All-Star game for the NL.

Let that sink in. Chris Carpenter is going to start the All-Star Game for the NL.

This move, frankly, sucks. Carpenter is the third-best pitcher in baseball and has no business starting the game. Here are his stats:

Carpenter: 13-4, 128 K's, 2.51 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 3 CG's

That's pretty good...Until you compare these stats to the numbers of Dontrelle Willis and Roger Clemens.

Willis: 13-4, 98 K's, 2.39 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 5 CG's, 4 SHO's
Clemens:7-3, 112 K's, 1.48 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 0 CG's

Roger Clemens should be starting the All-Star game. His ERA is better by over an entire run (!), while his WHIP is better as well. Sure, he only has seven wins, but he also has 8 ND's in which he gave up a total of six earned runs.

Clemens is in the midst of the best season any pitcher has had since Bob Gibson threw 13 SHO's in 1968. To deny him the starting spot in the All-Star game is embarrassing to the game of baseball.

What makes it worse is that this is not the first time that a manager has made a terrible homer pick. For example, last year, Joe Torre selected his setup man, Tom Gordon, to be an All-Star pitcher. It was a terrible call because there were so many more deserving setup men out there (like, say, B.J. Ryan) - and this year, the same thing is happening.

This is just further proof that the decision to make the All-Star game determine home field advantage in the World Series is a bad one. La Russa is undoubtedly playing to win in this game; he wants his pitcher to go deeper into the game, and probably feels more comfortable asking Carpenter to do that.

The All-Star game is officially messed up on so many levels. Roger Clemens should be starting the All-Star Game.

Ruining All-Star Weekend

I want to compliment Major League Baseball on their attempt to make the Home Run Derby an international affair. Baseball is played all over the world, and attempting to make the All-Star Weekend a multi-cultural event is fun and exciting. The idea was to select eight players, with each player hailing from a different country and have them compete in the Derby.

As per usual, there were several hitches, namely injuries. Derek Lee was sidelined with an strained left shoulder, and so Mark Texiera replaced him as an American representative. Miguel Tejada didn't want to represent the Dominican Republic; he recommended David Ortiz, and Big Papi was only to happy to comply.

However, there was a hitch involving Japan. Hideki Matsui wasn't an All-Star, and felt that he shouldn't be in the Derby because he hadn't made the All-Star squad. This opened up the way for Ichiro Suzuki.

Now, Ichiro is not a power hitter. He had only 37 homers in his first four years and has only six home runs this season. However, it is pretty much agreed that he could hit 25 to 35 home runs if it was required of him. Every day in batting practice, he puts on a show for his teammates.

Unfortunately, the chance to see him demonstrate his power skills on a national stage was missed when he too declined the invitation. Desparate, the MLB chose as a replacement...

Hee-Seop Choi?

Choi, a fourth-year player, has never been much of a performer. He has 38 career homers, with a moderate 13 this season. He is not a big-name player and does not have legions of fans following him, the way Ichiro or Matsui do.

This move is bad on so many levels. For one, if you're trying to make it international, why would you go with Korea? There is no Korean influx of players in the majors - fact is, Choi is the only Korean big-leaguer. Instead, why not go have a representative of Mexico? Get Vinny Castilla. While not a big name player, he does have power, having hit more than 40 home runs three times and hitting 35 in 2004 (when he led the NL in RBIs). And if Vinny bows out, why not go with the ever-popular Julio "The Ageless Wonder" Franco?

By tainting the Home Run Derby, MLB is one step closer to making all of All-Star weekend totally uninteresting. The All-Star game was already messed up (due to the 'one representative from every team' rule) when Bud Selig made the insane decision to have the game determine home-field advantage in the World Series. That is batshit crazy. The All-Star game not only doesn't count in the standings, but it isn't even played like a normal game: each team will probably have around eight pitchers throw, and upwards of 20 to 25 position players will have had playing time by the end of the game. Why would you want a meaningless game determining home-field advantage in the most important series of the year?

The All-Star break should be one giant party. People should be going to the game, going to the Derby, drinking beer, having fun, tailgating, eating hot dogs, and enjoying the game of baseball. None of it should be serious; it's all just for kicks. So adding incentive to win - making it a serious competition - really hurts the whole weekend. I mean, don't you think that Albert Pujols, David Eckstein, Jim Edmonds, and Tony La Russa will be playing cutthroat baseball because they want to win?

What's worse about the move to make the Home Run Derby international is that it stinks of a publicity stunt. With the World Cup of Baseball looming around the corner, MLB seems to be trying to get early publicity for it by turning the Derby into a international competition. This would be okay if everything went off with out a hitch. However, once certain players bowed out - such as Matsui, Ichiro, Derek Lee, and Miguel Tejada - MLB should've scrapped the whole idea and gone with a tradional Derby lineup. Keeping players like Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez out of the Derby is a crime - and so is letting in Hee-Seop Choi.

Inagural Post - All-Time Team

I want to kick off this blog right. So, I figured I'd open up with something often argued, debated, and analyzed: Who would be on the all-time baseball squad? I am asking this question not as "Who is the best at each position?" but rather, who would I chose to make a functioning baseball team?

Outfield

Rightfield is as easy a decision as there could possibly be. George Herman "Babe" Ruth is and will probably always be the starter in right field in every "Best All-Time" list ever made. His numbers are well chronicled and instantly recognizable: 714 home runs (2nd all-time), .469 OBP (2nd all-time), .690 slugging (1st all-time). In addition to his staggering offensive numbers, his defense was excellent as well; his right arm was so strong that he was a pitcher with a lifetime ERA of 2.28.

Centerfield has only two legitimate candidates: Ty Cobb and Willie Mays. Cobb, like Ruth, has legendary numbers: a lifetime average of .367, 297 triples, 4,191 hits, 12 batting titles (including nine in a row), 23 straight seasons in which he hit over .300, three .400 seasons (reaching .420 in 1911), .433 career OBP, 892 steals, and 2,245 runs. Other than perhaps Rickey Henderson, he is the greatest leadoff hitter in the history of the majors.

Mays on the other hand, was a power hitter. His undeniable statistics include 3,283 hits and 660 home runs (one of only three players ever to reach the 3,000-500 plateau, with Rafael Palmeiro seven hits away from making it four), 1903 RBIs, .302 batting average, and 12 Gold Gloves (and he likely would've won more, had the award existed at the beginning of his career).

I would take Cobb because he is the best fit for the leadoff spot. I can find other power hitters like Mays, but there is no other reasonable option for the top of the lineup who is of the same caliber of Cobb.

Leftfield is the most interesting spot in the outfield. Two candidates stand head and shoulders above the rest: Barry Bonds and Ted Williams. Their stats are both phenomenal:

Bonds:
703 homers
.300 batting average
.443 OBP
.611 slugging

Williams:
521 homers
.344 batting average
.481 OBP
.634 slugging

In this instance, it is really a tossup. However, I must give the edge to Teddy Ballgame. Bonds' career has varied greatly. He didn't bat .300 until his fifth season and hit only 84 home runs in his first four seasons. Late in his career, he has become an absolute joke in the outfield. Meanwhile, Williams was always consistent, hitting 127 home runs in his first four seasons, while hitting .406 in his third season. He has the highest all-time on-base percentage, and while his total number of home runs might not match up with Bonds, it is important to remember that Williams lost three years to military service and one year to injury. While Bonds does hold the single-season home run record, he twice didn't hit 20. I am inclined to give the edge to the more consistent Williams.

Final selctions: Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Ted Williams

First Base

First base is a crowded position. Eddie Murray? Rafael Palmerio? George Sisler?

It's gotta be Lou "The Iron Horse" Gehrig.

Over a thirteen year period, Gehrig averaged 139 runs and 148 RBI a season. His lifetime batting average is .340; he holds the record for most grand slams all-time (23) as well as the AL single-season record for RBI (184).

Gehrig is a superior hitter to all the other power hitters at first base: McGwire, Palmeiro, and Murray. However, George Sisler is the one player that offers skills that Gehrig doesn't have. Sisler won two batting titles, hitting over .400 both times, and had a total of 257 hits in 1920, a record that stood for 84 years until surpassed by Ichiro Suzuki in 2004. He hit .300 or better 13 times and had a .340 lifetime batting average.

However, Gehrig is a better fit than Sisler because Sisler is a leadoff man, and I already have Cobb filling that role. I would take Gehrig because he is the ideal compliment to Williams and Ruth. He would be a perfect fit as the fifth hitter in the lineup, adding additonal power in the heart of the lineup, protecting the two in front of him while doing damage himself.

Second Base

In this instance, Joe Morgan is absolutely the perfect fit. Morgan, who hit 268 home runs (the record for second basemen) and had more than 40 steals nine times in his career, is exactly what this team needs: someone to hit out of the two-hole. Morgan, who spent most of his career batting second in the lineup (behind men such as Pete Rose), slides in perfectly into this squad.

Third Base

When discussing all-time third basemen, Mike Schmidt is generally conscensed as the best all around player. He hit over five hundred home runs, and was solid defensively. However, I'm going to select Brooks Robinson.

Because I already have Williams, Gehrig, and Ruth I have no need of yet another big slugger. Adding Schmidt would simply be overkill and frankly, wouldn't be much use to the team. So, on when it comes to the hot corner, my number one concern is defense - and Brooks Robinson fits the bill perfectly. Robinson holds the major league record for putouts, assists, chances, double plays and fielding percentage. He also holds the record for most Gold Glove awards, winning sixteen consecutive, from 1960 to 1975. In addition, he was no slouch with the bat - his 268 home runs was at one time an AL record for third basemen. He is the perfect compliment to the rest of this team.

Shortstop

Like third base, I am going with defense at this position. While players such as Honus Wagner and Cal Ripken, Jr. might be better overall, I believe that there is little debate that Ozzie Smith is the best defensive SS of all-time. The Wizard won thirteen consecutive Gold Gloves, from 1980 to 1992. He had phenomenal range and a strong enough arm to put out just about anyone who hit the ball his way. While he was rather poor with the bat - his lifetime batting average is only .262, and he hit only 28 home runs for his entire career - like Brooks, he is chosen for his defense. However, his ineffective offense means he will likely be batting very low in the lineup.

Catcher

In the pantheon of great catchers, I have narrowed it down to five players who stand out above all else: Roy Campanella, Yogi Berra, Johnny Bench, Carlton Fisk, and Ivan Rodriguez. Here are their season averages:

Campanella: 24.7 HRs, .276 avg, .360 OBP, .500 slugging, 5.7 passed balls, 8.4 errors, .988 fielding average
Berra: 23.3 HRs, .285 avg, .348 OBP, .482 slugging, 5.4 passed balls, 5.7 errors, .987 fielding average
Bench: 25.3 HRs, .267 avg, .342 OBP, .476 slugging, 7.0 passed balls, 7.2 errors, .987 fielding average
Fisk: 23 HRs, .269 avg, .341 OBP, .457 slugging, 7.6 passed balls, 9.5 errors, .987 fielding average
Rodriguez: 19 HRs, .306 avg, .347 OBP, .490 slugging, 6.6 passed balls, 7.6 errors, .990 fielding average

Based on this, you can see that Campanella is the most accomplished offensive player (with the hi ghest homer avergage, OBP, and slugging), while Berra is the best defensively. Fisk is the worst of the five, both offensively and defensivly, with the lowest OBP and slugging, as well as averaging the highest number of passed balls and errors.

For me, it comes down to Campanella and Berra. I have to give the spot to Berra. Not only is he the best defensively, but he also has a higher batting average (nine points higher than Campanella) and a home run rate fairly comparable to Campanella (23.3 versus 24.7). And while Campanella does have better slugging and OBP averages, I think that defense should be the number one concern for the catching position. Yogi Berra is the pick.

Final selections: Yogi Berra, Lou Gehrig, Joe Morgan, Brooks Robinson, Ozzie Smith, Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, and Ted Williams

Batting Order
1.) Cobb
2.) Morgan
3.) Williams
4.) Ruth
5.) Gehrig
6.) Robinson
7.) Berra
8.) Smith