"Bran Torino" Wins Final Vote

Thanks to each team cross-promoting the other's nominee, Shane Victorino and Brandon Inge won the NL and AL All-Star Final Vote, respectively. They're probably not the best players of the five, but so what? Shane "The Flyin' Hawaiian" Victorino is a lot of fun to watch, and probably should have gone last year, so even though I voted for Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval (best nickname in baseball right now) I'm not annoyed the way I have been in years passed. I know the ASG is about honoring excellence, but it's also about the pleasure of baseball for its own sake, a chance to put together a crowd-pleasing spectacle. It's part of the reason I hate the fact that the Game determines home-field advantage in the World Series: It introduces an unncessary competitive element to the atmosphere.

I'm disappointed Inge won, since that means the best 2B in the American League isn't in the ASG. Ah well, the "Bran Torino" coalition of the two was goofy, fun, and reasonably memorable--everything the All-Star Game should strive to be.

All-Star Game 'Final Vote' Picks

Ian Kinsler and Pablo Sandoval.

The AL race is much more interesting, as Kinsler and Carlos Peña would be slam-dunk All-Stars in any other year, Figgins is having a hell of a year out in Anaheim, and as I write this Inge is in the lead...I mean, there are a lot of very good players in baseball, and the MLB front offices routinely do a good job of identifying worthy candidates for the Final Vote. I will say that Figgins is probably the most exciting player of the five to watch, and I would love to see him go. Peña leads the AL in home runs and is hitting for a ton of power, but his glove is way down this year, and anyways he never had a shot because there is no way the fans are voting a .230 hitter in on the Final Vote. I'm selecting Kinsler because he probably should be starting at 2B anyways, has a better glove than any of the other four, and I don't like that RedSoxNation managed to steal away the starting spot from him at the last second.

Matt Kemp and Sandoval are the only real choices in the NL. I was going to vote for Kemp, but then I was reminded that he bats 7th or 8th most games. Even if Kemp was hugely better (which he isn't), I don't know that you can say a guy out of the 8-hole, no matter what his numbers, is having as much of an impact as a guy who bats 3rd and hits .330.

Vote early and vote often!

Photos from the Reds@Phillies, 7/7

I was visiting my parents in Philadelphia and, seemingly inevitably, we headed into the city to see the Phillies play.

Before I start talking about the game, let me just say that if you're planning to drive into Philly to watch baseball...don't. The traffic is insane, the roads aren't big enough to handle the congestion anyways, the signs aren't clear, and the roads are in poor condition. On top of all that, when the game ended and we were leaving, there was no one policing or directing traffic; as a result, we sat in our cars and literally did not move one inch for forty-five minutes. If you want to see the Phillies play, take the train into the city. Don't drive.

Anyways, enough bitching. It was a tough loss for the Phillies, losing 4-3. During the third inning, the team had a chance to bust it wide open, as the bases were loaded with no outs, but three guys got up and three guys sat down. The Phillies didn't score another run the rest of the night. During the ninth inning, Brad Lidge gave up a run to give the Reds the lead and then got tagged with the loss.

Now for photos, all shot from Sec. 424, Row 12, Seat 8 (click to enlarge):




By reputation most people know Citizens Bank Park as a great stadium, but I was still impressed by how nice it was. The place was absolutely beautiful and immaculately maintained. Sitting in the upper deck, I got a great view of the city stretching away from the stadium. Also, I know everyone has said this, but this stadium may as well be an exact copy of Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The ivy growing up a brick wall in dead center, the height of the walls, the power alleys...the aesthetic is basically cut and pasted from the Yard, which makes sense considering the same company was the architect for both. That said, I prefer Oriole Park because of the way right field is twenty-five feet high and is connected to Eutaw Street...it's just a nice little wrinkle that gives the park its own flavor, like the ivy at Wrigley or the Green Monster.

Chase Utley taking his cuts. I was very pleased with how this picture turned out.

I'm not the first to say this, but Utley is pretty clearly the most underrated player in baseball--and I say this acknowledging the fact that he's about to start the All-Star game, and make his fourth consecutive appearance in the Mid-Summer Classic. Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard won back-to-back MVPs, but Utley was probably a better player than either in both seasons. Heading into 2008 I thought he might finally get the respect he deserves, but then Dustin Pedroia won the AL MVP and was annointed 'the best second baseman'. I agree that Pedroia had a better season last year than Utley, but Utley's been doing it for years. In any given season he's the best defensive 2B in baseball; in fact, Bill James and the guys over at The Fielding Bible rated him at +47 plays last year; in other words, he made 47 more plays than the average second baseman last year, the best total by any player at any position [note: I can't tell you how pleased I am by this fact. As I was first getting into sabermetrics, I got discouraged and started wondering why we even bother watching the games when it seems like every observation a person can make on baseball is somehow overturned by the stats. Shortly thereafter, my folks moved to Philadelphia, and as I helped them move in over the summer, I caught about thrity to forty Phils games on TV. I don't know why, but in the back of my head I kept telling myself that I'd read that Utley was an average defender. The more I watched him, though, the more I thought he was a spectacular defender, and learning that the stats see him as an elite defender was an...edifying moment; let's leave it at that. He actually made a great play last night, fielding a hard-hit ball with a the runner on first in motion, tagging the runner and throwing to first for the out. It was better in person.].

I could go on and on and start talking about his power, telling you things you already know, but let's skip that. Something you probably don't know, though, is that Utley gets hit more than any other active player. He led the majors in HBP in 2007 (with 25), 2008 (with 27), and is second in the majors this year, with twelve, behind Kelley Shoppach, with 14. Hmm...power hitting second baseman who gets hit by a lot of pitches? Sounds like future Hall of Famer Craig Biggio.


The shift deployed versus Ryan Howard.

I could turn this into a full blog post...I think Howard is going to be out of baseball inside of three, maybe four seasons, and if the Phillies were smart they would trade him as soon as possible. Howard doesn't run, doesn't hit for average, doesn't play defense, doesn't walk that much (and only walks against lefties), is a complete black-hole against LHPs...the only thing Howard does well is hit home runs off right-handed pitchers. I mean, Ryan Howard is a platoon player right now, and he's only 29 with very little mileage on his body. Where do you think he's going to be when he's 33, 34, 35? It's interesting that arguably the most underrated and most overrated players in baseball share an infield.

These next few pictures I like to call Brad Lidge Blows the Game: A Photo Essay in Three Acts.

This first picture is titled Brad Lidge Prior to Blowing the Game.

This second picture is titled Brad Lidge In the Process of Blowing the Game.

And this last photo is entitled Brad Lidge After Blowing the Game.

fins

All ribbing aside, what the hell is up with Lidge? Someone should do a breakdown of his season and compare it to last year in order to see what's up. Incidentally, while we're on the topic of mercurial relievers, B.J. Ryan just got released by the Jays. Frailty, thy name is closer!

Hopefully I'll be able to make a habit of this every time I go to a game. Hope you enjoyed.

The Hidden Language of Statistics

It's amazing how sometimes, you look at the numbers, and you can read a story in them. I'm not just talking about 'well he broke into the league at such a time, and in following seasons he became more accomplished by some measure, and lately he declined until he departed the sport.' I'm talking about reading a story, seeing an act in several stages, with scene changes, protagonists, beginnings, middles, and ends. Just today, I was reading the career numbers of Alfonso Soriano, which can be found here. (It's important that I refer you to the precise numbers I was perusing, as the bevy of different kinds of statistics means that one site's listings of a player's numbers can be very different from another site...I can't tell the story if we're not speaking the same language.)

Over the last few years, Alfonso Soriano has been a very good player, an elite player. He's hit extremely well and also been an oustanding fielder; BaseballProspectus has him saving 60 fielding runs above average between 2006 and 2008, equivalent to roughly six wins. However, he went though a huge boost between 2005 and 2006, which is unexpected considerng he turned 30 that year. Since that jump, however, his numbers have been gently sliding downward as he progresses into the late stage of his career. Though he bounced around the order, batting third one year, fifth another, he's basically been a leadoff man the whole time, stealing a lot of bases at a pretty good rate (78% for his career), even though he's always had a lot of power (hence the two years in the heart of the order).

Well...don't you see? Soriano is a guy who was hindered by his own talent. Coming up, coaches likely focused on wheels and decided he was a leadoff man. Considering his build and his great speed, they tried to make him a second baseman. Soriano wasted the whole first half of his career trying to figure out how to play the infield when he should have been a corner outfielder. He focused on his speed and ran a lot, which pulled him away from his power hitting: After years of jumping around between slugging in the .400s, then slugging in the low .500's, then slugging under .500 again, Soriano reeled off three straight years of slugging more than .530 after signing with Washington in 2006 and finally moving to left field. And, as he hit for more power, his steals declined, as he stole fewer than 20 bases in 2007 for only the second time in his career; he repeated this in 2008.

Throughout all this Soriano has remained a good hitter. But what if he had spent his prime seasons doing what he ought to be doing: Hitting in the heart of the order, and playing the outfield? Considering how well he hit after moving from second, and how well he has fielded left, it's hard not to think he was a potential Hall of Fame LF who was ruined by coaches who tried to make him a second baseman and leadoff man. I think that, if he had come up as a left fielder who batted third or fifth, he could have hit close to 500 home runs.

I'm throwing around words like "wasted" and "ruined", but Soriano has been regularly outstanding. He'll almost certainly hit 300 home runs and will probably steal 300 bases, making him only the seventh member of the 300-300 club (along with Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds, Willie Mays, Reggie Sanders, Steve Finley, and Andre Dawson). Though he likely isn't headed to the Hall of Fame, he has remained a great player.

Now, I may have missed something. Perhaps Soriano, as a teenager, convinced himself that he was a leadoff man, and has insisted on leading off throughout his career. Maybe he got forced to the position during the minor leagues (I can't find any records of what positions he played in the minors). Still, I think I'm basically on the mark with my analysis. I've been following Soriano for a few years, and I've always thought he was a middle-of-the-lineup guy. I just never realized what a story could be found looking at his career totals.

There are stories, fascinating stories, stories that make baseball what it is; they are all around us, and it is only the guaze-thin shielding of statistics that separates us from them. If we can pare the folds and learn to read the hidden language of statistics, we can reveal those stories in whole.

Return to blogging, part two? Not really

I know no one will read this, so I'll keep this brief. I'm going to be starting a real blog in the fall; but until that website is erected, I need a venue to record my thoughts. Besides, blogging some for fun will be a good way to get in shape for when it actually counts.