The Hidden Language of Statistics
It's amazing how sometimes, you look at the numbers, and you can read a story in them. I'm not just talking about 'well he broke into the league at such a time, and in following seasons he became more accomplished by some measure, and lately he declined until he departed the sport.' I'm talking about reading a story, seeing an act in several stages, with scene changes, protagonists, beginnings, middles, and ends. Just today, I was reading the career numbers of Alfonso Soriano, which can be found here. (It's important that I refer you to the precise numbers I was perusing, as the bevy of different kinds of statistics means that one site's listings of a player's numbers can be very different from another site...I can't tell the story if we're not speaking the same language.)
Over the last few years, Alfonso Soriano has been a very good player, an elite player. He's hit extremely well and also been an oustanding fielder; BaseballProspectus has him saving 60 fielding runs above average between 2006 and 2008, equivalent to roughly six wins. However, he went though a huge boost between 2005 and 2006, which is unexpected considerng he turned 30 that year. Since that jump, however, his numbers have been gently sliding downward as he progresses into the late stage of his career. Though he bounced around the order, batting third one year, fifth another, he's basically been a leadoff man the whole time, stealing a lot of bases at a pretty good rate (78% for his career), even though he's always had a lot of power (hence the two years in the heart of the order).
Well...don't you see? Soriano is a guy who was hindered by his own talent. Coming up, coaches likely focused on wheels and decided he was a leadoff man. Considering his build and his great speed, they tried to make him a second baseman. Soriano wasted the whole first half of his career trying to figure out how to play the infield when he should have been a corner outfielder. He focused on his speed and ran a lot, which pulled him away from his power hitting: After years of jumping around between slugging in the .400s, then slugging in the low .500's, then slugging under .500 again, Soriano reeled off three straight years of slugging more than .530 after signing with Washington in 2006 and finally moving to left field. And, as he hit for more power, his steals declined, as he stole fewer than 20 bases in 2007 for only the second time in his career; he repeated this in 2008.
Throughout all this Soriano has remained a good hitter. But what if he had spent his prime seasons doing what he ought to be doing: Hitting in the heart of the order, and playing the outfield? Considering how well he hit after moving from second, and how well he has fielded left, it's hard not to think he was a potential Hall of Fame LF who was ruined by coaches who tried to make him a second baseman and leadoff man. I think that, if he had come up as a left fielder who batted third or fifth, he could have hit close to 500 home runs.
I'm throwing around words like "wasted" and "ruined", but Soriano has been regularly outstanding. He'll almost certainly hit 300 home runs and will probably steal 300 bases, making him only the seventh member of the 300-300 club (along with Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds, Willie Mays, Reggie Sanders, Steve Finley, and Andre Dawson). Though he likely isn't headed to the Hall of Fame, he has remained a great player.
Now, I may have missed something. Perhaps Soriano, as a teenager, convinced himself that he was a leadoff man, and has insisted on leading off throughout his career. Maybe he got forced to the position during the minor leagues (I can't find any records of what positions he played in the minors). Still, I think I'm basically on the mark with my analysis. I've been following Soriano for a few years, and I've always thought he was a middle-of-the-lineup guy. I just never realized what a story could be found looking at his career totals.
There are stories, fascinating stories, stories that make baseball what it is; they are all around us, and it is only the guaze-thin shielding of statistics that separates us from them. If we can pare the folds and learn to read the hidden language of statistics, we can reveal those stories in whole.
Over the last few years, Alfonso Soriano has been a very good player, an elite player. He's hit extremely well and also been an oustanding fielder; BaseballProspectus has him saving 60 fielding runs above average between 2006 and 2008, equivalent to roughly six wins. However, he went though a huge boost between 2005 and 2006, which is unexpected considerng he turned 30 that year. Since that jump, however, his numbers have been gently sliding downward as he progresses into the late stage of his career. Though he bounced around the order, batting third one year, fifth another, he's basically been a leadoff man the whole time, stealing a lot of bases at a pretty good rate (78% for his career), even though he's always had a lot of power (hence the two years in the heart of the order).
Well...don't you see? Soriano is a guy who was hindered by his own talent. Coming up, coaches likely focused on wheels and decided he was a leadoff man. Considering his build and his great speed, they tried to make him a second baseman. Soriano wasted the whole first half of his career trying to figure out how to play the infield when he should have been a corner outfielder. He focused on his speed and ran a lot, which pulled him away from his power hitting: After years of jumping around between slugging in the .400s, then slugging in the low .500's, then slugging under .500 again, Soriano reeled off three straight years of slugging more than .530 after signing with Washington in 2006 and finally moving to left field. And, as he hit for more power, his steals declined, as he stole fewer than 20 bases in 2007 for only the second time in his career; he repeated this in 2008.
Throughout all this Soriano has remained a good hitter. But what if he had spent his prime seasons doing what he ought to be doing: Hitting in the heart of the order, and playing the outfield? Considering how well he hit after moving from second, and how well he has fielded left, it's hard not to think he was a potential Hall of Fame LF who was ruined by coaches who tried to make him a second baseman and leadoff man. I think that, if he had come up as a left fielder who batted third or fifth, he could have hit close to 500 home runs.
I'm throwing around words like "wasted" and "ruined", but Soriano has been regularly outstanding. He'll almost certainly hit 300 home runs and will probably steal 300 bases, making him only the seventh member of the 300-300 club (along with Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds, Willie Mays, Reggie Sanders, Steve Finley, and Andre Dawson). Though he likely isn't headed to the Hall of Fame, he has remained a great player.
Now, I may have missed something. Perhaps Soriano, as a teenager, convinced himself that he was a leadoff man, and has insisted on leading off throughout his career. Maybe he got forced to the position during the minor leagues (I can't find any records of what positions he played in the minors). Still, I think I'm basically on the mark with my analysis. I've been following Soriano for a few years, and I've always thought he was a middle-of-the-lineup guy. I just never realized what a story could be found looking at his career totals.
There are stories, fascinating stories, stories that make baseball what it is; they are all around us, and it is only the guaze-thin shielding of statistics that separates us from them. If we can pare the folds and learn to read the hidden language of statistics, we can reveal those stories in whole.
posted by Mr. Crash at
1:09 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home